May 20, 2021 - A Powerful Reminder

A Powerful Reminder

May 20, 2021

There were 339 new cases reported today in Alabama (incl 127 probables) to go with 288 new cases reported yesterday. In addition, ADPH released 2 notices last night which re-characterized 3,150 positive cases from last Friday and Saturday as “backlogs” from tests performed between last September and early May. After deducting these newly characterized backlogs from the totals, the 7-day moving average of new cases (through today) becomes 358 cases per day. The effect of ADPH’s re-characterization is to reduce last week’s 3-day spike by two-thirds (i.e. the daily average for the period in question drops from 1,604 cases to 554 cases per day).

It is my understanding that these backlogs stem from a single urgent care provider that operates at multiple locations throughout the State. This explains why last week’s reported spike was so widespread, but it also begs the question how a high-volume lab can fail to report so many positive tests in a timely manner. At least, we finally have a satisfactory explanation for the brief spike. Prior to the spike last week, the 7-day moving average of new cases was 374 per day. After adjusting for the backlog, the average is 358 cases per day, so frankly, not much has changed.

Confirmed hospitalizations remain low. Today, there were 307 patients in 100 reporting hospitals, or 3.07 patients per hospital. However, there were 32 more deaths reported today, which sadly takes Alabama’s overall death toll to 11,077. Although Alabama ranks 24th in population, it is 10th in per capita deaths from Covid (2,253 per 100K population), just barely behind Louisiana and South Dakota (tied at 2,263 per 100K).

As for vaccinations, an average of 16.4K doses per day were administered in Alabama last week, a 5% decline from the week before. Alabama has now administered at least one dose to 1,709,761 people, covering 40.8% of the eligible age 12 and older population and 35% of the State’s entire population (national average 47.9%). At least 1,362,834 people have been fully vaccinated in Alabama, or 27.8% of the entire population (national average = 37.8%). Only Mississippi has a lower rate of fully vaccinated residents (26.2%).

With 11 days left in May, I am thinking about cutting back on the frequency of this newsletter - or perhaps ending it altogether. While the pandemic is far from over, the CDC’s recent guidance that fully vaccinated people can resume activities, both indoors and outdoors, without wearing a mask or physically distancing, is a game-changer. Vaccines are now plentiful, so the vast majority of people who are interested in what I may have to say are already vaccinated. Unfortunately, many adult Alabamians - perhaps the majority - have no intention of getting vaccinated and no amount of hectoring from me will change that. By next week, I will come up with a plan going forward, so I would appreciate hearing what you think.

In the meantime, I want to leave you with this link to my favorite Google ad because it is a powerful reminder of why I began writing to you over a year ago:

5/7 - 314

5/8 - 419

5/9 - 244

5/10 - 106

5/11 - 310

5/12 - 347

5/13- 1,147 (including 306 backlog) - net 841

5/14- 4,918 (including 4,877 backlog) - net 41

5/15- 2,016 (including 1,235 backlog) - net 781

5/16 - 254

5/17 - 184

5/18 - 336

5/19 - 288

5/20 - 339