May 18, 2021 - Better News to Start the Week

Better News to Start the Week

May 18, 2021

Today, there were 336 new reported cases (incl. 45 probables), following 184 cases on Monday and 254 cases on Sunday. These numbers are close to the daily totals prior to the spike last week. ADPH has made no further effort to publicly explain that spike, which has pushed our 7-day moving average to 848 cases per day (excluding the 2 reported backlogs on Thursday and Friday). Therefore, national media (like the Washington Post and Associated Press) are reporting that new cases rose 90.6% in Alabama last week compared to the prior week, while new cases declined 18.2% in the United States as a whole.

Hospitalizations are stable, if not a bit lower. Today, there are 315 patients in 105 reporting hospitals, or 3.06 per hospital. This suggests that any uptick in cases is likely concentrated among younger people with mild symptoms.

Alabama is now averaging 16.8K doses administered per day, a 19% decrease compared to the week before. It has given at least one dose to 40.7% of the State’s eligible (12 and older) population, which ranks 49th in the nation. By way of contrast, Massachusetts has given one dose to 71.7% of its population. New Jersey has reached 65.7%, California 62.7%, Michigan 53.4%, and Texas 49.7%. In the Deep South, neighboring Georgia has given one dose to at least 44.5% of its eligible population, Florida 45.9% and Tennessee 43.6%.

Lowndes County, one of Alabama’s poorest counties, is the only county in the State that has administered at least one dose to more than 50% of its residents (50.7%), while another Black Belt county, Hale, has the highest percentage of fully vaccinated residents (40.2%). 47.2% of Jefferson County’s residents have received at least one dose, which is the highest among Alabama’s 10 most populous counties. For those keeping track: comparing Lee County (home of the Auburn Tigers) and Tuscaloosa County (home of the Crimson Tide), Lee leads as 41% of its residents have had one dose compared to 36.7% for Tuscaloosa.

Alabama’s seniors have been particularly diligent at getting vaccinated. 75% of the State’s residents aged 65 and older have received at least one shot (national average = 84%), compared to 36% of Alabamians aged 18 to 64 (national average = 54%). Only 4% of Alabamians between the ages of 12 and 17 have received at least one shot (national average = 13%).

Not surprisingly, women are getting vaccinated at a higher rate than men - 44% of all Alabama women have received at least one dose so far compared to just 36.5% of all men. According to the ADPH dashboard, white and Black Alabamians are getting vaccinated at roughly the same rate - 34% of whites, 32% of Blacks, and 48% of mixed race - but the data on racial demographics is somewhat skewed because the race of nearly 13% of vaccinated individuals is unreported.

Overall, at least 1.7 million Alabamians have received at least one shot so far and about 325,000 Alabamians have tested positive in the last 6 months. It is conservatively assumed that at least three times as many people are infected than those who receive positive tests. Therefore, one may conclude that close to 3 million Alabamians (roughly 60% of the population) currently have some level of Covid antibodies. In order to reach the 70% herd immunity threshold, approximately half a million Alabamians still must be immunized either by vaccination or natural infection. The totals:

5/5 - 662

5/6 - 565

5/7 - 314

5/8 - 419

5/9 - 244

5/10 - 106

5/11 - 310

5/12 - 347

5/13- 1,147 (including 306 backlog)

5/14- 4,918 (including 2,962 backlog)

5/15- 2,016

5/16 - 254

5/17 - 184

5/18 - 336