May 15, 2021
From late March until this week, new cases of Covid-19 in Alabama generally ranged between 150 and 500 per day, with rare exceptions. In fact, three days ago, the 7-day average of new cases was 329 per day and stable. Then, on Wednesday, cases spiked to 841 (excluding a 306-case backlog reported by ADPH). The next day, cases spiked again to 1,956 (excluding another reported 2,962-case backlog). Today, ADPH reported 2,016 more new cases along with this uninformative notice: "ADPH has processed 2 separate backlogs for 2 large facilities over the last 3 to 4 days. It has shown an overall increase in cases which is historic not recent cases (sic). When we have more specific information we will update you.”
It is disturbing that,15 months into this pandemic, ADPH is still reporting massive backlogs. Putting the backlogs aside, however, it seems inconceivable at this point that ADPH would report 841 new cases,1,956 new cases and 2,016 new cases on three successive days without offering a public explanation. Again, these numbers are net of the reported backlogs.
According to the CDC’s latest data, 48 states reported fewer new daily cases this week than last week, and the national average for new daily cases declined by 21%. The only 2 states where that is not true are Alabama and Mississippi. Our western neighbor experienced a 22% increase compared to last week, while Alabama’s cases have increased 99%! By my calculation, exclusive of the backlogs, the 7-day moving average of new daily cases is now 831 per day, compared to just 329 per day only three days ago.
An examination of county case data shows that this spike is widespread, affecting virtually every county, which cannot be blamed on a backlog. Here are today’s case totals for 10 of the most populous counties in Alabama, followed by the county’s prior 7-day moving average: Jefferson (658 vs. 187 per day); Shelby (218 vs. 79 per day); Madison (130 vs. 53 per day); Montgomery (156 vs. 53 per day); Mobile (84 vs. 34 per day); Baldwin (102 vs. 31 per day); Morgan (58 vs. 18 per day); Tuscaloosa (44 vs. 17 per day); St. Clair (56 vs. 17 per day); Lee (41 vs. 15 per day).
If Alabama and Mississippi turn out to be the epicenter of a new surge (Heaven Forbid), blame will inevitably fall on their poor vaccination rates. As of today, Mississippi has vaccinated 25.8% of its residents, while in Alabama, the rate is 27.5%. Those are the two lowest vaccination rates in the nation. The national average is 36.7%.
The United States will likely pass two important Covid milestones this week. First, more than 10% of all Americans have now been diagnosed with a confirmed infection, a mark that only Czechia and Sweden can match. Second, the United States will formally recognize its 600,000th death (experts agree the actual figure is far higher). With a population of 4.9 million and over 537K cases, Alabama passed the 10% threshold long ago. This week, Alabama formally recognized its 11,000th Covid death.
It is high time that we emerge from this nightmare once and for all. We can only hope that, when ADPH finally gets around to “updating” the public on the reasons for the spike that has gripped the state over the last 3 days, there is a rational explanation that we can all accept. The totals:
5/2 - 288
5/3 - 187
5/4 - -0-
5/5 - 662
5/6 - 565
5/7 - 314
5/8 - 419
5/9 - 244
5/10 - 106
5/11 - 310
5/12 - 347
5/13- 1,147 (including 306 backlog)
5/14- 4,918 (including 2,962 backlog)
5/15- 2,016
Thanks, Frank. Last night I talked with a UAB official about the unexplained COVID spikes. She said the reporting statewide has always been less than dependable. 4918 ? Seriously--even if you subtract the backlog, you get get close to 2000. Witness the positives--in fact, she said no one is really focused much on the # of positives anymore--what counts for the stats people is VAX. This is not good news, we're the worst. I have a theory--when you see a person wearing a mask, I'd almost bet that that person was vaxed, in comparison to those not vaxed, whom I believe are less likely to be wearing masks! That's how we roll.