May 14, 2022 - New Reasons for Concern

New Reasons for Concern

May 14, 2022

My last Alabama Covid newsletter was issued on April 29. Until recently, daily reported cases and Covid-related hospitalizations in Alabama were flat, so I placed my writing on hold. This week, there has been a perceptible rise in both cases and hospitalizations in Alabama and the Southeast, so it is time to take notice again.

This week, Alabama has averaged 330 new daily reported cases, which is a 39% rise over the 238 daily cases reported last week. Due to the prevalence of at-home tests, the reported case numbers are not very reliable, except to the extent that they cast light on the incidence of more severe cases, which tend to be reported more often. As for hospitalizations, there are currently 178 Covid-related patients in Alabama, up from 147 patients this time last week - a rise of 21%.

Alabama is still doing fairly well compared to many sister states, but the gap has narrowed, suggesting that a summer surge could be on its way. The State’s current rate of 7 cases per 100K population is well below the national average of 27 cases per 100K. However, in the last week, only 17 states witnessed a faster increase in the rate of reported cases than Alabama, while 32 states saw a slower rate of increase or no increase at all.

Meanwhile, Alabama’s current rate of only 4 Covid-related patients per 100K population is better than all but 12 states. However, the State’s 21% rate of increase in hospitalizations is worse than that in 32 other states. Just as cases and hospitalizations appear to be plateauing or declining in the Northeast, the opposite is true in much of the Southeast. For example, reported cases in Mississippi increased 145% this week, 55% in Louisiana, 48% in Tennessee and 42% in Georgia. During the same period, hospitalizations rose 32% in Mississippi, 27% in Florida and 23% in Arkansas.

The current trends suggest that the Southeast could be facing another summer surge, reminiscent of 2020 and 2021. There are notable differences, of course. So far, the variants we know about are related to the Omicron strain, so the immunities derived from prior infection and existing vaccines provide more protection from severe disease than we experienced when the Delta variant emerged last summer. However, natural immunities from infection will wane as time elapses and we are already 4 months removed from the peak Omicron wave last January.

Within Alabama, there are currently 17 counties listed as having “High” rates of community transmission, including Madison and Limestone counties (Huntsville metropolitan area); Shelby County (suburban Birmingham); Montgomery County; and Baldwin County (suburban Mobile). Two weeks ago, there were no counties in Alabama listed in the “High” transmission category. That reflects just how rapidly the Covid situation can change in a community when the highly contagious Omicron Ba.2 and related sub-variants begin to take hold.

Though I am writing less frequently now, I will continue to monitor the data and try to alert you if and when significant changes take place. The totals:

4/30 - not reporting

5/1 - not reporting

5/2 - 438

5/3 - 292

5/4 - 342

5/5 - 350

5/6 - 242

5/7 - not reporting

5/8 - not reporting

5/9 - 548

5/10 - 496

5/11 - 394

5/12 - 456

5/13 - 419