May 11, 2021 - The India Variant

The India Variant

May 11, 2021

With 310 new cases today (incl. 162 probables), the 7-day moving average of new daily cases has risen 7.5% to 374 cases per day. Exactly one month ago, the average of new daily cases was just 311 per day, meaning that daily cases have risen 20% over the last month. Also in the last week, Covid-related hospitalizations have risen 0.7% to 3.49 per reporting hospital (363 patients in 104 hospitals). One month ago, that average was 3.21 patients per reporting hospital, or nearly 8% fewer hospitalizations.

An average of 2.12 million doses per day were administered in the United States last week, a 7% decline compared to the prior week. In Alabama, an average of 20.9k doses per day were administered, representing a 2% decline. Alabama has now administered at least one dose to 1,657,672 people, covering 42.1% of the 16 and older population, and 33.8% of the state’s entire population (national average = 46%). At least 1,273,670 Alabamians have been fully vaccinated, or 26% of the entire population (national average = 34.8%).

On Monday, the FDA gave emergency use authorization for the use of the Pfizer vaccine to vaccinate minors between the ages of 12 and 16. There are approximately 300,000 Alabama adolescents who fall in that age group. While that may push us closer to herd immunity, its effect will likely be marginal. According to the ADPH dashboard, 73% of Alabamians over the age of 75, and 68% of 65 to 74 year olds are vaccinated. However, only 49% of 55 to 64 year olds, and just 26.4% of 16 to 54 year olds, have gotten vaccinated. The pathetically low percentage of vaccinated young people, despite easy access to vaccines, simply has to change. Otherwise, this virus will continue to disrupt our daily lives, infecting and hospitalizing our friends and neighbors, until an even more deadly variant emerges.

Which is why the situation in India is so frightening. According to the World Health Organization, there is a highly contagious triple-mutant Covid variant spreading in India that is becoming a new global health threat. The variant, known as B.1.617, has been found in preliminary studies to spread more easily than the original virus and there is evidence it may be able to evade some of the protections provided by vaccines. In just a few weeks, the B.1.617 variant has become the dominant strain across India and has spread to about 40 nations, including the United Kingdom, Fiji and Singapore. It seems only a matter of time before this new variant reaches the United States.

I am 66 years old, fully vaccinated, and just completed a cross-country road trip to celebrate my new-found freedoms. After reading upon my return that 74% of Alabamians under the age of 55 still have not bothered to get the first dose of readily available vaccines, it caused me to get angry all over again. Progress made in the last 4 months can quickly be undone if we allow it. The totals:

4/28- 376

4/29- 430

4/30- 409

5/1 - 387

5/2 - 288

5/3 - 187

5/4 - -0-

5/5 - 662

5/6 - 565

5/7 - 314

5/8 - 419

5/9 - 244

5/10 -106

5/11 -310