March 9, 2021 - Three Days a Week

Three Days a Week

March 9, 2021

There were 524 cases reported today (incl. 46 probables), which is coincidentally the exact same number reported on Saturday, the date of my last newsletter. The 7-day moving average of new cases is 885 and the average positivity rate for the week is 18%. Although the hospitalization rate continues to set record lows (4.5 patients per reporting hospital), there were 37 more Covid deaths reported today.

According to Bloomberg News, Alabama has administered at least 1 dose to 15.2% of the state’s population (U.S. national average = 18.4%) - only Georgia has a lower percentage for 1 dose. Approximately 8.6% of Alabama’s population has been fully vaccinated (U.S. national average = 9.4%) - three states (TX, TN and UT) have a lower percentage for both doses. Nineteen states have given at least 1 dose to at least 20% of their populations and 26 states have fully vaccinated at least 10% of their populations.

Why is Alabama still ranked 49th in the nation in the distribution of 1 dose and 47th for both doses? For a variety of reasons, Alabama got off to an abysmal start in vaccine distribution. Take your pick: (i) poorly funded county health departments; (ii) no Medicaid expansion; (iii) slow development of online registration; (iv) inflexible approach to reserving 2nd doses; (v) high percentage of rural medical providers; (vi) high degree of vaccine hesitancy, especially among Phase 1a medical personnel.

Since mid-January, however, the State’s distribution has been far more efficient - in the week ending Saturday, 160,000 doses were administered, a 13% increase over the week before. However, other states have also been more efficient, so it is unlikely Alabama will move up in the rankings. One odd anomaly that may be holding Alabama back is the steep drop-off in weekend vaccine distribution. For example, Alabama has averaged fewer than 5,800 doses per day for the last 4 Sundays compared with 32,500 doses per day on the last 4 Fridays. So far, I am unable to identify the reason for this severe disparity.

Perhaps help is on the way. Gov. Ivey has confirmed she will deploy Alabama National guardsmen to set up mobile vaccination sites in at least 24 counties. Two 55-person teams will rotate through the counties, starting March 23, with each team administering up to 8,000 vaccine doses per week.

Two Pfizer vaccine items recently caught my attention. First, a new study published in the New England Journal of Medicine found that the Pfizer vaccine is highly effective against a variant that is currently ravaging Brazil. Second, an infectious disease expert at Children’s of Alabama, Dr. David Kimberlin, told reporters that results of ongoing Moderna and Pfizer vaccine trials for children and teenagers may be released by the end of spring. He also said the FDA will likely issue authorization by age groups, with infants being last.

The latest Covid data has improved to the point that I now feel comfortable cutting my newsletter back to three days a week - Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays. Therefore, unless circumstances cause me to change my mind, my next letter will be released on Thursday, March 11. See you then! The totals:

2/21 - 857

2/22 - 677

2/23 - 1453

2/24 - 1247

2/25 - 890

2/26 - 739

2/27 - 834

3/2 - 652

3/3 - 2733

3/4 - 922

3/5 - 811

3/6 - 524

3/9 - 524