March 6, 2021 - The Foolishness of Certainty

The Foolishness of Certainty

March 6, 2021

The unpredictability of this virus has a way of making certainty look foolish. Yesterday, I was convinced that 2 weeks of level cases meant we had plateaued. Today, I’m not so sure. The case count today (524 cases, incl. 76 probables) and the single-day positivity rate (9.9%) are the most encouraging signs I’ve seen in quite some time. Both numbers are the best for a work day (Mon-Fri) since early last June. Wouldn’t it be nice if the latest plateau was just a brief pause before daily cases resume their decline? That question should be answered in the coming days.

Let’s not get carried away. We have seen good days before - one good day is not a trend. The 7-day moving average for new daily cases is still 961, the weekly positivity rate is still 19% and 27 more Alabamians tragically died. Even so, it is encouraging to see this significant decline in cases and positivity rate after both metrics had flatlined for so long.

Over the last week, an average of 24,100 vaccine doses per day were administered in Alabama, a 9% increase over the week before. Alabama has now administered at least one dose to 721,109 people, covering 27.7% of the prioritized population and 14.7% of the State’s entire population. At least 402,061 people have now been fully vaccinated, which is equal to 8.2% of the entire population.

The State’s inventory of vaccines is growing again. In fact, the NY Times estimates (based on CDC data) that Alabama now has 528,000 unused doses currently waiting to be injected into arms. This number is considerably higher than ADPH would acknowledge. ADPH says it has administered 81.8% of the doses received to date but the CDC says only 68% of the State’s doses have been administered.

In general, I give ADPH high marks recently for pushing vaccines out the door. The process of coordinating two doses is not easy - as illustrated by the snafu at MainStreet Urgent Care, one of the first facilities in the state to receive vaccines and distribute them. After administering one dose, MainStreet had to notify many of its unhappy customers that there were not enough vaccines to deliver the promised second dose. MainStreet is reportedly working with ADPH to resolve its supply imbalance.

Finally, Children’s Hospital of Alabama has informed the public of a significant uptick in cases of multi-system inflammatory syndrome in children across the State. Since April 1st, 2020, Children’s has seen more than 80 suspected cases of MIS-C, a rare and dangerous syndrome linked to Covid. Dr. David Kimberlin said the main symptoms to look out for are persistent fever for three or more days, skin rash, and abdominal pain. He also pointed out that the syndrome seems more common in older children. “Not as likely to be a two-year-old, three-year-old, or four-year-old,” he said. “It’s more a 10-year-old, a 12-year-old, or 15-year-old.”

As usual, I will be off tomorrow and Monday. See you again on Tuesday. The totals:

2/20 - 774

2/21 - 857

2/22 - 677

2/23 - 1453

2/24 - 1247

2/25 - 890

2/26 - 739

2/27 - 834

3/2 - 652

3/3 - 2733

3/4 - 922

3/5 - 811

3/6 - 524