March 5, 2021
Dr. Fauci often describes the pandemic in the U.S. as a series of peaks and plateaus. The same is true in Alabama. After average daily cases peaked on January 10 at 4,280 cases per day, we witnessed a continuous rapid descent until February 21, when the average stood at 845 cases per day. For the last 2 weeks, we have ridden a plateau between 800 and 1,000 cases per day, which is where we are today - 811 cases (incl. 114 probables) and a 7-day moving average of 1,005 cases per day. Meanwhile, the 7-day average of positivity has drifted between 18% and 20% - as of today, that average sits at 19.9%.
In the Age of Covid, a plateau is a strangely precarious place. So far, every plateau has been the launching pad to a higher peak. Although today’s record low hospitalization rate of 5.0 Covid patients per hospital is a welcome relief - the lowest rate since May 14 - the report of 28 more deaths serves as a grim reminder of the latest peak.
That uncomfortable perch is unfortunately where we live today. The decline in cases has ended. In the past week in Alabama, new daily reported cases actually rose 6%, while new daily reported deaths fell 14.3% and Covid-related hospitalizations fell 23.2%.
This is why Governor Ivey made the right decision by extending the mask order. When that order was first announced last July, it seemed more like a suggestion than an order because it lacked any credible enforcement mechanism. Looking back, I know that I did not give the order enough credit for setting a new standard of conduct. According to a year-long CDC study of county-level data, published today, mask mandates are associated with a 0.5% decrease in the daily growth rate of Covid cases up to 20 days after implementation. Decreases up to 1.8% were seen 100 days later. Mask mandates were also associated with a 0.7% decrease in daily rates of Covid deaths up to 20 days after implementation and decreases of up to 1.9% 100 days later.
Dr. Harris said today that the first 61 doses of the new J&J vaccine were administered in the State. Alabama has received over 40,000 doses this week, but Harris said he does not expect to receive any more J&J shipments this month. Harris did say, however, that the State is receiving more doses of the other vaccines than ever before. It’s a shame that production of the new single-dose vaccine has been delayed because its arrival has been greeted with enthusiasm across the country, according to the New York Times.
As of 5:30 pm today, Alabama has administered at least one dose of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to 704,173 people, covering 27.1% of the prioritized population and 14.4% of the entire population. At least 383,078 people have been fully vaccinated, which amounts to 7.6% of the State’s population. Slowly but surely, we’re making progress. The totals:
2/19 - 847
2/20 - 774
2/21 - 857
2/22 - 677
2/23 - 1453
2/24 - 1247
2/25 - 890
2/26 - 739
2/27 - 834
3/2 - 652
3/3 - 2733
3/4 - 922
3/5 - 811