March 4, 2022 - Lessons from Omicron

Lessons from Omicron

March 4, 2022

This week, Omicron has neared the completion of its destructive round-trip journey through the United States. Nationally, daily case counts (~52K per day) and hospitalizations (~39.5K) have returned to levels last seen in July of 2021, though they haven’t yet reached the lows from last June (i.e. ~11K cases per day & ~17K hospitalizations).

Alabama’s Omicron story is also in its final stages. In the last 7 days, ADPH has reported 5,108 cases (average 730 per day), which is roughly the same level as on December 15 (average 685 cases per day), when Alabama’s first official Omicron case was reported. Our daily average is still higher than 300 cases per day, the low point reached in late November as well as last June.

According to HHS, Alabama currently has 735 statewide patients, which again is a vast improvement from our January high of 3,200 patients, but remains elevated from the November low of 363 patients. All but 8 of Alabama’s 67 counties are now listed as “medium” or “low” risk counties under the CDC’s new mask-wearing guidelines, which focus primarily on hospital admissions and Covid’s share of ICU occupancy. Yesterday, Jefferson County was officially downgraded to “medium”.

Omicron has left an indelible mark on the U.S. The first great wave of this pandemic culminated in over 100,000 American deaths in January 2021. Within 5 months after the rollout of vaccines that were 90%+ effective, nationwide Covid deaths dropped to just 10,000 by the month of June. The vaccines also proved to be ~85% effective against the Delta variant, which nevertheless devastated the South and other places where vaccination rates were extremely low.

Then along came Omicron, a mutant variant that was far more adept at avoiding vaccines. The Pfizer/Moderna vaccines proved to be only 35% effective against 2 shots & 70% effective with a booster. Arriving on our shores when few people were yet boosted, the Omicron variant spread like wildfire. A large study of children aged 5-17, published today in CDC’s Morbidity & Mortality Weekly Report, highlights the critical importance of dosage and boosters. For instance, among 16-17 year olds who received 2 doses more than 150 days before exposure, vaccine effectiveness had waned to nearly 0% against Omicron. On the other hand, when a booster shot had been received within 150 days, the effectiveness jumped to an astonishing 81%.

Although the mRNA vaccines clearly took a hit with Omicron, this study reaffirms that vaccines are critically important. There are many reasons to get your child vaccinated, and the benefits (particularly their protection against severe disease) outweigh the risks. Though the initial dosages for children, particularly in the 5-11 age category, were insufficient during the Omicron surge, those issues can and will be addressed in the future.

A catastrophic global pandemic arrived in the United States almost exactly two years ago and the nation’s official death toll now exceeds 955,000 (including 132,000 in the last 2 months). However, as Omicron recedes, more people are celebrating and bars/restaurants are reopening. Today’s better-than-expected February Jobs Report (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) found that the Leisure & Hospitality industry hired 179,000 more workers last month than in January. Even the Education & Healthcare sector hired a surprising 112,000 more workers, another hopeful sign.

Yet, as Americans celebrate the end of the latest surge, we cannot ignore the suffering that is left behind. Long-haul Covid, for instance, is a quiet and lonely scourge that still afflicts many people. The deaths of 73 more Alabamians were reported today - 317 in the last 4 days and 18,480 overall. Note: Alabama has the 3rd highest per capita death rate in the nation, surpassing New Jersey this week.

To be clear, I am thrilled to see the departure of the Omicron variant and I am more than ready to celebrate. On the 2-year anniversary of this pandemic, I also pray that lessons have been learned and the world will be better prepared the next time. The totals:

2/19 - 1,163

2/20 - 484

2/21 - 392

2/22- 639

2/23 - 1,232

2/24 - 1,225

2/25 - 1,157

2/26 - 1,169

2/27 - 358

2/28 - 201

3/1 - 786

3/2 - 1,259

3/3 - 762

3/4 - 573