March 23, 2022
The positive trends have continued to hold in Alabama this week. Average daily cases fell 17% compared to the prior week while hospitalizations fell another 20%. There are now just 286 Covid hospital patients throughout the State, which is close to the 2-year low of 233 patients recorded on June 21, 2021. The 7-day average of 254 cases per day is also nearing the June 2021 low of 151 cases per day. The deaths of 30 more Alabamians were reported today, bringing the State’s overall total to 19,169.
Experts are carefully monitoring the global spread of the Omicron subvariant Ba.2. Studies out of Denmark and the U.K. have found that the Ba.2 subvariant is far more transmissible than the original Omicron strains and yet, Ba.2 rarely reinfects a person who was previously infected by the original strain. That may explain why many parts of the world have seen Ba.2 outbreaks, but the effects have varied so widely. In Hong Kong, for instance, Ba.2 caused a major surge in what has been described as a “complete loss of control over the epidemic”. On the other hand, in South Africa, where Omicron was first detected, Ba.2 has almost completely replaced the original Omicron strain, without cases rising substantially.
Ba.2 is rapidly becoming the dominant strain in the U.S. — about 35% of last week’s U.S. cases were caused by Ba.2, up from 23% the prior week. In New England and New York, it now accounts for more than half of all new infections. The key question is whether the U.S. will follow the South Africa example, where Ba.2 has replaced the original strain without significantly altering the downward trend in cases, or the Hong Kong example, where Ba.2 triggered another dramatic surge.
So far at least, Ba.2 has had a milder impact in the United States. However, it is clear the national decline in cases has begun to plateau. In the last 7 days, reported cases nationally dropped a paltry 1% compared to the prior week. Eleven states have even seen an uptick in daily cases, all of which are located in the Northeast and Upper Midwest. It stands to reason that Alabama, like other parts of the South, may enjoy higher levels of immunity against Ba.2 because so many people were infected by the original strain earlier this winter.
We should all hope the Ba.2 subvariant will not trigger another wave because otherwise, the country will be ill-prepared to cope. Congress recently cut $15 billion in coronavirus funding, which means the government has had to cut shipments of monoclonal-antibody treatments by one-third. It also means that next month, the government will no longer be able to reimburse health-care providers for testing, vaccinating, or treating millions of uninsured Americans, who are disproportionately likely to be unvaccinated. It also means that, come June, it won’t be able to subsidize U.S. testing manufacturers. Or purchase antiviral pills and other treatments for people who are immunocompromised. It also means the U.S. will have to scale back its vaccination assistance to poor countries, where dangerous new variants are more likely to arise.
I am reminded of what Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said in a recent interview: “You use the quiet periods to do the hard work. You don’t use the quiet to forget.” The totals:
3/10 - 632
3/11 - 545
3/12 - 352
3/13 - Not reporting
3/14 - 165
3/15 - 211
3/16 - 438
3/17 - 527
3/18 - 494
3/19 - 220
3/20 - Not reporting
3/21 - 155
3/22 - 200
3/23 - 185