March 20, 2021
Over the last 2 weeks, Alabama has averaged 533 new cases per day. Over the last 2 days, we have averaged 520 new cases per day, including 508 today (incl. 40 probables). The pattern seems clear: new daily Covid cases have plateaued.
There is more evidence we have plateaued. The positivity rate is 13% today (508 cases and 3,893 tests), which mirrors the 12.6% 7-day moving average for positivity. Even the decline in the hospitalization rate has flattened out. In fact, ADPH reported 3.74 patients per reporting hospital, compared with 3.70 per hospital two days earlier, which is the first increase (albeit miniscule) in average patients per reporting hospital since mid-January. There were also 11 more reported deaths.
It’s worth asking, should we be worried about this plateau? The answer appears to be yes. The possible stagnation in infections comes as Alabama nears its April 9 target date for rolling back the statewide mask order, and it follows a steep drop from daily highs reached in January. What we are seeing in Alabama is now taking place throughout the U.S. and has the experts deeply concerned that the plateau will be a springboard to a possible third wave, which Europe has experienced. As CDC Director Walensky noted, “We stand to completely lose the hard-earned ground we have gained.”
So, future progress once again boils down to the race between vaccinations and variants. In the last week in the U.S., an average of 2.46 million doses per day were administered, a 7% increase over the week before. Meanwhile, in the last week in Alabama, an average of 24.6K doses per day were administered, an 8% decrease over the week before. Alabama has administered at least one dose to 960,539 people, covering 36.9% of the prioritized population and 19.6% of the State’s entire population (national average = 24%). At least 533,814 people have been fully vaccinated, or 11% of the State’s population (national average = 12.3%).
Vaccines may not only prevent infection, but also alleviate long-haul symptoms. According to a recent study by British researchers (not yet peer reviewed), eight months after people were hospitalized for Covid-19, those who were vaccinated experienced more improvements in long-haul symptoms than those who weren’t yet vaccinated. It is way too early to reach definitive conclusions from the results of this small study, but it offers hope for one of the most vexing and tragic consequences of this pandemic.
So, how is the vaccine rollout going? Beginning Monday, all Alabamians in Phase 1c will officially become eligible. That is good news. It would be better news if Alabama would follow the lead of the 6 states that have opened up vaccinations to all residents over the age of 16 years old (Alaska; Arizona; California; Wyoming; Michigan; and neighboring Mississippi). Utah will join those states on March 24. Ohio and North Dakota on March 29. Connecticut on April 5. And, officials in Illinois, Kentucky, Rhode Island, Maryland, Missouri, Maine and Vermont have publicly stated that all adults would be allowed in April to sign up for a shot. What are we waiting for? The totals:
3/5 - 811
3/6 - 524
3/9 - 524
3/10- 782
3/11- 865
3/12- 448
3/13- 594
3/14- 368
3/15- 549 (exclusive of backlog)
3/16- 488
3/17- 558 (exclusive of backlog)
3/18- 572
3/19- 531
3/20- 508
I received my first vacc yesterday. But I think I'll pass up on the 2nd one. I think to me they found a vaccine too quick.