March 2, 2021 - March Has Returned

March Has Returned

March 2, 2021

Last year at this time, it was Super Tuesday and Democrats across the country eagerly awaited the results of party primaries in 14 states, including Alabama. In the week that followed, the Presidential race would turn upside down … and so would the lives of people throughout the world. By March 11, the World Health Organization would officially declare the coronavirus a global pandemic. The next day, March 12, Alabama would officially confirm its first positive case of Covid-19.

March has returned and the virus is still here. ADPH reported 652 more cases today (incl. 165 probables) on 3,648 tests, a 17.9% one-day positivity rate that culminates a 7-day moving average of 17.3%. ADPH also reported 60 more deaths in Alabama, taking the death toll for the State to 9,991. We are sitting on the cusp of 10,000 deaths in our State, a milestone that seemed unfathomable a year ago. Alabama has witnessed 6.8 deaths per 100K over the last 7 days, the 4th highest rate in the nation over that period. By the way, 10,000 deaths are more than those witnessed by Japan, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Austria or Greece.

There is good reason to believe that we are finally turning the corner. For example, only 631 Covid patients are now being cared for by 107 statewide hospitals, an average of 5.9 patients per hospital. That is the lowest average for hospitalizations since the first week of June. Over the last 7 days in Alabama, new daily cases have fallen 16%; new daily reported deaths have fallen 19%; and Covid-related hospitalizations have fallen 18.8%.

Though national statistics also have improved, they recently plateaued (both cases and deaths actually rose 4% nationally in the last week), and the U.S. is still reporting more than 65,000 new cases a day on average — comparable to the peak of last summer’s surge. More contagious variants are circulating, with the potential to push case counts upward again. Even more alarming is the fact that testing has fallen 30% in recent weeks, so experts cannot say how quickly new outbreaks might be detected. And millions of Americans are still waiting to be vaccinated.

In Alabama, approximately 14% of the population has received 1 dose of vaccine and 6.7% has received 2 doses, as compared to national averages of 15.6% and 7.9%, respectively. During the last week in Alabama, 22,400 doses per day have been administered, while the national average over the same period is 1.94 million doses per day.

There is a frantic race taking place to vaccinate as many people as possible in advance of the spread of variants. While attention has been focused on mutations that arose in the U.K. and South Africa, scientists are increasingly concerned about a third variant from Brazil, called P.1, which is closely related to the South Africa variant. Based on preliminary findings from 3 studies, this variant has demonstrated the ability to infect some people who had immunity from previous bouts of Covid-19. P.1 is now spreading across Brazil and has been found in 24 other countries, including the U.S. The CDC has recorded 6 cases in 5 states - Alaska, Florida, Maryland, Minnesota and Oklahoma.

As the second year of this pandemic dawns, we are exhausted and eager to move on (my nephew’s 13 year-old son will experience his second Covid birthday next week). Yet, now is not the time to burn your mask and take a victory lap. We are called upon to act responsibly just a short while longer, to get vaccinated as soon as possible, and to urge others to do the same. The next 60-90 days will make all the difference. Totals:

2/13 - 1189

2/16 - 883

2/17 - 679

2/18 - 1198

2/19 - 847

2/20 - 774

2/21 - 857

2/22 - 677

2/23 - 1453

2/24 - 1247

2/25 - 890

2/26 - 739

2/27 - 834

2/28 - 652