March 17, 2022 - Covid Realities In An Interconnected World

Covid Realities In An Interconnected World

March 17, 2022

The sun is shining on Alabama at the moment and we should be grateful. I only wish I could be certain the good times will last. Over the last 7 days, daily reported cases have declined 63%, while hospitalizations have dropped 27%. Even the death rate declined 35% compared to the prior week, although 33 deaths per day is still too high. Alabama has now recorded 18,998 Covid deaths overall.

The 7-day average for reported cases has declined to 320 per day, roughly where it stood on July 4 last year, before the Delta variant slammed the South. There are 357 statewide Covid patients as of this morning, only 66 of whom are being treated in ICU’s. That’s the lowest number of ICU beds occupied by Covid patients in Alabama since that statistic began being recorded in June 2020.

So, with all this good news, why am I reluctant to declare an end to the pandemic in our State? Primarily, because we have learned that what happens elsewhere in the world, particularly Europe, directly affects us. In Western Europe, a new surge fueled by the rise of the Omicron subvariant Ba.2 has alerted authorities to the possibility of a new wave in the U.S. Germany is a nation of 83 million people, and it saw more than 250,000 cases in a single day this week. The Netherlands, home to fewer than 18 million people, averaged more than 60,000 cases per day. The U.K, Austria, Portugal, Greece, and Switzerland are also seeing rising trends.

The outbreak in Europe is largely attributed to 3 factors: (i) the emergence of BA.2, which is more transmissible than the original Omicron; (ii) the opening of society, with people mingling more indoors without masks; and (iii) waning immunity from vaccination or prior infection. All three factors are equally applicable to the U.S., where 23% of new cases are believed to be caused by Ba.2, up from 3% a couple of weeks ago. In parts of the Northeast and New England, BA.2 accounted for more than 38% of cases last week.

Some have speculated that the war in Ukraine might be contributing to the surge in Europe. That’s certainly possible but it is notable that Poland, which has received more refugees than any other country, has seen a 17% decline in cases during the last 14 days.

So, what does this mean for the U.S? Almost certainly, we will see an uptick in cases later this spring. The extent of this uptick may vary by location based on prior infection rate and vaccinations. Reinfection with Ba.2 is rare among those who were infected by the original Omicron strain. Experts estimate that Omicron reached about 45% of Americans, which leaves 55% who remain susceptible.

The uncertainty in Europe underscores the importance of getting vaccinated and boosted, even though it may seem that the pandemic is coming to a close. On Tuesday, Pfizer said it has sought emergency authorization for a second booster shot of its vaccine for adults 65 and older. The F.D.A. is expected to convene a meeting of its advisory committee next month to discuss the issue of fourth shots. Given the evidence that vaccine effectiveness wanes over time, I anticipate that a fourth shot will be approved. When that happens, you can bet that I will run, not walk, to my local pharmacist. The totals:

3/4 - 573

3/5 - 689

3/6 - 673

3/7 - 1,062 (excluding 2,654 positive tests between 12/20 & 2/25)

3/8 - 625

3/9 - 536

3/10 - 632

3/11 - 545

3/12 - 352

3/13 - NR

3/14 - 165

3/15 - 211

3/16 - 438

3/17 - 527