March 13, 2021 - Do You Believe in Miracles?

Do You Believe in Miracles?

March 13, 2021

After peaking at 865 cases two days ago, Alabama had 448 new cases yesterday and 594 cases today (incl. 200 probables), slightly more than the 7-day average of 556. I am encouraged that the weekly positivity rate has dropped to 14%, the lowest since mid-October. For a state that has never tested enough, the positivity rate is a better indicator of community spread than the raw daily case count, in my opinion. If the positivity rate moves into single digits, it would be a big deal.

Meanwhile, the hospitalization rate in Alabama is down to 4.2 patients per reporting hospital. For nearly a solid month in January, our State led the nation in per capita hospitalizations; today, we rank 20th in that category. Our death rate is also gradually coming down, although there were 28 more reported deaths today. In the last 7 days, 9 states have higher per capita death rates than Alabama.

The big news since Thursday (correction: the gigantic news) is the announcement that all groups in Phase 1c, plus individuals age 55 and older, will become eligible for vaccination on March 22. Several rural counties have been vaccinating some individuals in Phase 1c; now, all counties will be on equal footing.

Those newly eligible include people age 16 to 64 with high-risk medical conditions (e.g. cancer, chronic kidney disease, COPD, heart disease, compromised immune system after organ transplant, diabetes, sickle cell disease, pregnancy, smoking and obesity). Also eligible are persons who work in the following sectors: transportation and logistics; waste and wastewater; food service (including restaurant staff); shelter and housing (construction); finance (bank tellers); information technology and communication; energy; legal; media; and public safety (engineers).

In the last week, an average of 26.9k doses per day were administered, a 12% increase over the week before. Alabama has administered at least one dose to 841,394 people, covering 32.3% of the prioritized population and 17.2% of the State’s entire population (national average = 20.7%). At least 475,446 people already have been fully vaccinated, or 9.7% of the State’s population (national average = 10.8%).

Expanded eligibility to groups in Phase 1c has been made possible by the quickening pace of vaccinations. On Friday, the U.S. set new daily records when it administered 2.925 million doses and topped an average of 2.3 million doses per day for the week. Friday also marked the highest single day in Alabama (39,403 doses), aside from one day in February when the State emptied its unused inventory at 8 mass vaccination sites. If Alabama maintained a pace of 39,403 doses every day until the end of May, that would equate to 3 million more doses added to the 1.2 million doses already administered. And, it appears that about 15% of the new doses are the one-shot J&J vaccine.

Of course, experts will tell you that it is impossible to maintain a pace of 39,403 shots per day (especially not on weekends). But let’s dream big for a moment and pretend the experts are wrong. If we met that impossible goal, more than 2.6 million Alabamians would be fully vaccinated by the end of May. That’s about 70% of the State’s adult population! When you add those who acquired antibodies after getting infected, we would be darn close to herd immunity.

Do you believe in miracles? The totals:

2/24 - 1247

2/25 - 890

2/26 - 739

2/27 - 834

3/2 - 652

3/3 - 2733

3/4 - 922

3/5 - 811

3/6 - 524

3/9 - 524

3/10- 782

3/11- 865

3/12- 448

3/13- 594