June 8, 2020

June 8, 2020

Yesterday, I pointed out three encouraging signs for the state of Alabama in its battle with COVID-19: (i) the % positive test rate had declined on the basis of its 7-day average and its 14-day average; (ii) new daily hospitalizations had dropped from 44 to 29; and (iii) the 7-day average death rate had dropped to 8.29 (from a high of 17.29 on 5/12), with only 3 deaths recorded yesterday. I noted that if favorable trends in the positivity rate, hospitalizations and death rate continued, we could look forward to good news this summer. 

Well, what a difference a day makes. Every one of the data points referenced above moved in the wrong direction today. The 7-day average positivity rate moved from 5.83 to 6.84 while the 14-day average moved from 6.73 to 6.79.  Alabama recorded 32 new hospitalizations today, an increase from 29 yesterday. And, most disturbingly, 26 more Alabamians died today, the most since May 12, causing the 7-day average death rate to rise from 8.29 to 10.0. It’s difficult to say if the spike in deaths was affected by the computer glitch last week, but I’m not inclined to give ADPH the benefit of the doubt when calculating or reporting a statistic as fundamental as death.

There were 425 new statewide cases reported today, the fourth consecutive day with more than 400 new cases (beginning June 5, when the state reported 640 cases). We are now exactly two weeks out from Memorial Day, so this could be the sign of an uptick that many have been expecting. New cases can be a leading indicator of a worsening outbreak if it is followed by an increase in hospitalizations. The next couple of weeks will determine in what direction our state is headed.

Here are the totals for the last 14 days (including probable cases):

5/26 - 592

5/27 - 353

5/28 - 487

5/29 - 511

5/30- 616

5/31- 593

6/1 - 333

6/2 - 228

6/3 - 216

6/4 - 307

6/5 - 640

6/6 - 458

6/7 - 457

6/8 - 425

Montgomery led the way again with 74 cases, followed by Jefferson with 39 and Mobile with 28.