June 7, 2020
June 7, 2020
With 457 new cases reported in Alabama today, well above the 7-day average of 316, it may surprise you that I want to focus, instead, on some good news reflected in the data.
First, the % positive rate appears to be trending down. The statewide 14-day average is 6.73%, the lowest in two weeks, and the 7-day average is 5.84%, the lowest since May 5. Experts agree that a low rate of positivity in testing data can be seen as a sign that a state has sufficient testing capacity for the size of its outbreak and is testing enough of its population to make informed public health decisions. WHO’s recommended positivity rate is 5% or below. Alabama does not yet meet that standard but the trend is in the right direction. It should be noted that ADPH reported 10,000 tests today, its highest daily total to-date. This spike in tests and the low rate of reported cases earlier in the week likely factored in the lower 7-day average positivity rate.
Second, after reporting 44 new daily hospitalizations yesterday, the number dropped to 29 today. There were 167 new hospitalizations for the week, compared to 234 the previous week and 180 the week before that
Finally, the death rate has steadily improved since the middle of May, when the 7-day average reached an all-time high of 17.76. The 7-day average today was only 8.29. COVID-19 has killed 692 Alabamians during this pandemic, and every one of those deaths is a tragedy. It is important not to lose sight of that fact as we dive into the statistics.
If favorable trends in positivity rate, hospitalizations and deaths continue, then Alabama can look forward to a good summer. On the other hand, we have seen three straight days of high new case numbers. If the spike in new testing is only a one-day fluke and new case numbers remain high, then we can expect hospitalizations and deaths to climb again. That is why responsible personal behavior remains so critical as the reopening continues.
The 14-day totals:
5/25 - 639
5/26 - 592
5/27 - 353
5/28 - 487
5/29 - 511
5/30- 616
5/31- 593
6/1 - 333
6/2 - 228
6/3 - 216
6/4 - 307
6/5 - 642
6/6 - 458 (revised from 636)
6/7 - 457
Montgomery County has now surpassed Jefferson County in total cases. Today, Montgomery Co. again led the way with 61, followed by Jefferson with 59 and Mobile with 56.