June 28, 2020 - Buckle Up
Buckle Up
June 28, 2020
Buckle up, everybody, we’re back on the roller coaster if today’s numbers hold up. Don’t get too comfortable, though, because it might just be a reporting anomaly.
ADPH reported 359 cases, down dramatically from yesterday’s total of 900. On its face, that might be great news - but it looks a little fishy. Consider that ADPH also reported only 1,779 tests performed, compared to the 7-day testing average of 6,418. As recently as yesterday, 8,852 tests were performed, five times the number of tests reported today. On top of that, consider that the 7-day average of positive tests for the State increased from 12.2% to 12.9%, meaning a higher percentage of tests returned positive than the day before. Finally, consider what is happening in neighboring Georgia, which reported 2,225 cases, a number that crushed Georgia’s previous high of 1,990 - set yesterday. Not to mention Florida, which sets new records day after day (although pulling back to “only” 8,530 cases today).
I hope I’m wrong - but call me dubious. We’ll see how it goes the rest of the week.
I will say this, however. The death rate has definitely dropped in recent days, and that is good news. The lower death rate supports a theory that infections among younger, healthier people are increasing. Younger patients generally have better outcomes - but that statement comes with these caveats: (1) there are studies suggesting that young patients stay sick longer; (2) it is unknown what long-term, or even potentially permanent adverse effects may result from this virus; and (3) contagious young patients have parents and grandparents who are more likely to become infected by their family members.
So, with that, here are the 14-day totals:
6/15 - 657
6/16 - 640
6/17 - 400
6/18 - 894
6/19 - 796
6/20 - 547
6/21 - 472
6/22 - 433
6/23 - 643
6/24 - 967
6/25 - 1,142
6/26 - 977
6/27 - 900
6/28 - 359
Jefferson Co. reported 79 new cases, followed by Mobile Co. with 56. Montgomery Co. reported only 6 new cases! Perhaps therein lies a partial explanation for the unusual results.