June 27, 2020 - Countywide Comparisons
Countywide Comparisons
June 27, 2020
First, many thanks to friends who commented on my column. Your support fortifies me for what comes next. I am grateful that the JeffCo Health Officer, Dr WIlson, has decided to require face coverings countywide, beginning Monday. More commentary about that tomorrow.
Today, the number of new cases in Alabama ticked down slightly to 900 (incl. probables) from 977 after reaching a record high 1,142 on Thursday. Only Mike Pence would consider this good news on a day when Florida (9,585), Georgia (1,990), South Carolina (1,604) and Nevada (1.099) all shattered their prior records for daily cases and Arizona (3,593) fell just a little short. Twelve more Alabamians died, exactly matching our daily average.
The 7-day average positivity rate rose for the 4th straight day to 12.2%. (Remember - don’t make plans to visit NYC until this number falls below 10%). With 45 more hospitalizations, the rate of hospitalizations - probably the most critical statistic to follow right now - continued its slow but steady climb to more than 36 per day. The head of the Alabama Hospital Association confirmed that the State has “entered a new phase”, with 82% of ICU beds occupied and just 259 ICU beds available.
Now, for a change of pace. I have dug into county-level data and discovered some trends I’d like to share. I looked at all 67 counties and compared the 7-day average of new cases per day. There were 9 counties that stood out to me as having steady and, in some cases, dramatic upward trajectories over the last 14 days. This list does not include counties, like Montgomery, which reached a critical peak in mid-June and then began to decline. Nor does this list include counties, like Tuscaloosa and Morgan (Decatur), which have seen rolling waves of new cases, followed by declines. The counties on this list are those that have seen an uninterrupted increase over the last two weeks up to the present day. Here are the nine counties which meet that description:
County 7-Day Average 7-Day Average
as of 6/13/20) (as of 6/27/20)
Jefferson(B’ham) 61/day 102/day
Mobile(Mobile city) 40 61
Marshall 17 47
Lee (Auburn) 13 31
Shelby 10 26
Madison (Huntsville). 14 30
Etowah (Gadsden). 4 22
Baldwin 8 19
DeKalb 6 18
This list includes the counties that contain the largest cities in the State - Birmingham, Mobile and Huntsville. Also worrisome, the list includes the primary exurbs of those cities - Shelby, which borders Jefferson; Baldwin, which borders Mobile; and Marshall, which borders Madison. All the counties on this list have shown a steady increase the last 14 days ... but the trend could reverse at any time. This contagion is pernicious and unpredictable - some counties that were out of control earlier, and then plateaued (like Montgomery), could begin another upward trajectory. Likewise, the counties on this list could drop … or, more likely, they could become the next hotspots.
Here are the statewide totals for new cases in the last 14 days:
6/14 - 1,041
6/15 - 657
6/16 - 640
6/17 - 400
6/18 - 894
6/19 - 796
6/20 - 547
6/21 - 472
6/22 - 433
6/23 - 643
6/24 - 967
6/25 - 1,142
6/26 - 977
6/27 - 900
Jefferson led the way with 122 cases, followed by Mobile with 92 and Marshall with 63.