June 25, 2022
During a week when Covid cases in the United States declined 7%, there is no sign the surge of Covid infections in Alabama has peaked. For the week, we averaged 1,612 cases per day, a 17% increase from last week, when there were 1,374 cases per day. In fact, the infection rate is accelerating here in Alabama. Over the last 3 days of this week, new cases reached an average of 2,053 per day, a level last seen in early February, when cases were on their way down.
In the U.S., hospitalizations rose just 3% last week. In Alabama, however, they are rising much faster than that. There are now 460 Covid patients in Alabama hospitals (including 60 persons admitted to intensive care), up 19% from 389 patients on this day last week. Hospitalizations have actually tripled since May 21, when there were just 138 Covid patients in the State.
What is driving this surge? Evidence points to the emergence of two new Omicron sub-variants, BA.4 and BA.5. According to CDC estimates, BA.4/5 are responsible for 35% of new infections in the country, up from 23% last week and 15% the week before that. Since early May, BA.2.12.1 has been by far the dominant strain in the U.S., but in the last 2 weeks, the percentage of those cases dropped from 63% to 56%.
The jury is still out as to whether BA.4/5 are more severe than prior variants. However, a recent study suggests that those variants may affect the lungs more than prior Omicron strains. The study involved hamsters but, if true, that would be bad news in terms of virulence. Though more transmissible, Omicron has been less deadly than Delta primarily because it lodges in the upper respiratory system rather than the lungs. If it turns out that BA.4/5 behaves differently, then hospitalizations could begin to rise more dramatically.
Due to the emergence of BA.4/5, an announcement by Moderna drew a lot of attention this week. In late-stage clinical trials, an updated bivalent version of its Covid-19 booster elicited a fivefold increase in antibodies against BA.4 and BA.5 in previously vaccinated and infected individuals. The company plans to submit its data to the FDA in coming weeks in hopes that the new booster will be available by late summer. It should be noted that Moderna’s data have not yet been made available for outside scientists to scrutinize.
Finally, I received a disturbing reminder this week of what led me to begin writing this newsletter over two years ago. Dr. Deborah Birx, President Trump’s coronavirus response coordinator, told a congressional committee investigating the federal pandemic response that White House officials repeatedly withheld reports and documents that featured data on the virus’s spread and recommendations for how to contain it. She said the effort was part of a coordinated scheme to create a “false sense of security” and a “sense among the American people that this was not going to be a serious pandemic.”
In retrospect, the scheme that Dr. Birx described seems obvious. In the spring of 2020, it didn’t take long for President Trump to begin discrediting the findings and recommendations of the scientific community, including his own White House task force on the pandemic. Facts and data soon took a backseat to conjecture and spin. Political hacks (e.g. Michael Caputo & Roger Stone) and pseudo-scientists (e.g. Scott Atlas) were elevated above recognized experts in epidemiology, infectious disease and virology. According to Dr. Birx, the White House encouraged behaviors that increase infection in order to promote an unacknowledged policy of herd immunity.
Reading Dr. Birx’s testimony has evoked a flood of memories. I did not expect to dive into Covid data and write about it for the next 2+ years. Yet, here I am. As the history of this pandemic is recorded, the demise of facts and data will become an important chapter. As will the incalculable damage to science and the scientific community.
6/11 - not reporting
6/12 - not reporting
6/13 - 2,960
6/14 - 1,506
6/15 - 1,625
6/16 - 1,685
6/17 - 1,844
6/18 - not reporting
6/19 - not reporting
6/20 - 3,196
6/21 - 1,933
6/22 - 2,040
6/23 - 2,083
6/24 - 2,035
Where can I read Dr Brix's report