June 21, 2020 - Learning From the Experience of Europe
Learning From the Experience of Europe
June 21, 2020
Today marks the continuation of a favorable three-day trend in Alabama. With 472 reported cases, we have returned to the level we were a couple of weeks ago. Likewise, the 7-day average positivity rate dropped to 9.25%, which is still too high (only 5 states are higher) but represents five consecutive days of declines. There were 17 new hospitalizations, which is down from 27 yesterday, and the 7-day rate of confirmed hospitalizations has plateaued around 650. This level of hospitalizations continues to be a major concern but is probably sustainable unless (or until) there is another spike.
There is no logical explanation for Alabama’s relative improvement over the last few days. Like our fellow southern states, Alabama’s cases started to soar about 10 days ago, reaching a peak of 1,041 on Sunday, June 14. The state’s daily case level since then has been quite choppy - declining on three straight days, followed by a major spike and then three more days of decline. In stark contrast, Florida, Georgia, Texas and South Carolina have seen their cases continue to increase in a steady straight line. There is so much we don’t know about this disease - but, one thing we do know is that human behavior - for good or ill - plays a major role in its transmission. Wearing a mask and respecting others make a difference.
We know this because the experience of western Europe and parts of the U.S. (particularly the NY-NJ region) tell us so. At the end of March, Spain was averaging over 8,000 new cases a day - that number is now 330. Italy has reduced its daily average from over 5,600 down to 250 in the same timeframe. Even more impressively, the State of New York, which was convulsing under the burden of nearly 10,000 cases a day in early April, is now averaging only 650 new cases each day.
Friends, these enormous success stories in Europe and New York did not happen by accident. We do not live in the 14th century and this is not the “Black Death.” If we follow the advice of public health experts, we can slow the disease until a vaccine is found. We simply have to remain steadfast and convince our friends and acquaintances to do likewise. Here are today’s totals:
6/8 - 425
6/9 - 497
6/10 - 567
6/11 - 856
6/12 - 865
6/13 - 891
6/14 - 1,041
6/15 - 657
6/16 - 640
6/17 - 400
6/18 - 894
6/19 - 796
6/20 - 547
6/21 - 472
Jefferson (84), Mobile (62) and Tuscaloosa (37) reported the most cases today, with Montgomery (36) not far behind.