June 20, 2021
Since my last newsletter on Wednesday, 152 new Covid cases were reported in Alabama on Thursday and 182 more on Friday, resulting in a 7-day average of 191 new cases per day, a decline of 23% compared to the prior week. The 7-day average positivity rate in Alabama is now 4.4%. There are now 168 Covid patients in 103 reporting hospitals statewide (1.63 patients per hospital).
Over the last 7 days, 44 states have experienced a decline in new daily reported cases but 3 states with a common border have seen a dramatic rise compared to the prior week - Oklahoma (+36%); Missouri (+25%); and Arkansas (+10%). The reason? According to Steve Edwards, the CEO of CoxHealth, a health care system in southwest Missouri, hospitals there have seen a five-fold increase and 90% of new patients are the Delta variant. “They're younger, and they're sicker, they're coming in later, and there's less we can do for them”, Edwards said.
Health authorities in the U.K. say the Delta variant is involved in more than 90% of new cases there, as well, causing England to delay its scheduled reopening by 4 weeks. Experts say Britain’s vulnerability might be at least partly explained by the country’s decision to delay second doses of vaccine in order to stretch the supply of first doses.
The Delta variant has been detected in more than 25 U.S. states, including Alabama. The outbreak in places like Springfield, Missouri is an extremely ominous sign for our state. Again, Steve Edwards of CoxHealth: “We had the benefit of living in the Midwest while we saw the first waves hit the coast, which gave us more time. I think we're going to be a harbinger for the rest of the country… This Delta variant came from nowhere. You know, five weeks ago, [Delta] was less than 10%; now it’s 90% - probably 90% up. So I anticipate that the greater part of the South, the greater part of the Midwest and those areas with low vaccination rates are going to see a wave of patients similar to what they saw last fall and last winter.”
While fully vaccinated people are amply protected against the Delta variant, people with only a single dose remain vulnerable. Data from a recent study by Public Health England (PHE) demonstrated that two doses of the Pfizer vaccine are 96% effective against hospitalization or death caused by the Delta variant. The problem, of course, is that just 37% of Missouri’s population have been fully vaccinated, not much more than Alabama, where 32% have been fully vaccinated.
The choice is clear. You can get vaccinated and enjoy near 100% immunity from Covid, including the Delta variant, with antibodies that are effective for one year or longer, according to most experts. Or, you can refuse to get vaccinated and risk a host of nasty outcomes, such as stomach pain, nausea, vomiting, joint pain and hearing loss. Patients infected with the Delta variant are more likely to be hospitalized, require oxygen treatments and endure complications from blood clots, which can potentially result in gangrene and require amputation.
If you hear talking heads on television urging viewers not to get vaccinated, they usually have an ulterior motive and almost assuredly have been vaccinated themselves. When you hear such advice, ask if it is worth taking such dire risks just to prove a point? The totals:
6/7 - 739
6/8 - 216
6/9 - 305
6/10 - 290
6/11 - 188
6/14 - 550
6/15 - 290
6/16 - 160
6/17 - 152
6/18 - 182