June 15, 2020 - Declining Death Rate is Encouraging
Declining Death Rate is Encouraging
June 15, 2020
There is some moderately good news in the data today. ADPH reported “only” 657 new cases (including probables), which is the first day we have been under 850 since last Wednesday. The 7-day average of new cases continued its rise from 724 yesterday to 757 today after dropping the total for last Monday (425) from the 7-day average. I’ll take (and report) good news whenever I find it. We certainly could use some good news.
But, alas, I’m not convinced this qualifies as such good news. First of all, 657 is the sixth highest total we have seen in this state; it would have been nearly a record-breaking total if it had been reported last Thursday. Second, the total reported by ADPH on Monday is produced from reports submitted by hospitals and test centers the previous day - i.e. Sunday. If you have ever been in a hospital on Sunday, you will understand it is not as busy as week days. I suspect the drop today is not the beginning of a permanent trend. Finally, this is clearly not good news if our community leaders and fellow citizens use this temporary downturn as justification for continuing to do nothing to slow or mitigate the contagion.
On the other hand, I’d like to focus on another statistic that might legitimately be good news. Reported deaths from COVID have been exceptionally low in Alabama for three consecutive days -- 4 deaths on Saturday, followed by none on Sunday and only 1 reported death today. I don’t know if this trend is a statistical quirk or a reason for hope. It is certainly true that the national death rate is declining. In fact, the 7-day average of deaths in the U.S. caused by COVID-19 has seen a steady drop over the last two months, reaching its lowest point yesterday (737) since April 1. There were just 425 COVID-related deaths reported in the U.S. today. This could be an indication that our medical professionals have adapted to new and more effective forms of treatment. We can only hope the trend continues.
Here are today’s 14-day totals:
6/2 - 136
6/3 - 85
6/4 - 221
6/5 - 640
6/6 - 458
6/7 - 457
6/8 - 425
6/9 - 497
6/10 - 567
6/11 - 856
6/12 - 865
6/13 - 891
6/14 - 1,041
6/15 - 657
Montgomery Co. led with 80 cases, followed by Jefferson Co. with 62 and Tuscaloosa Co. with 51. After a spike of 60 cases yesterday, Madison Co. dropped to 34 today, which is a hopeful sign.