June 14, 2022
Over the course of the last week, reported cases in Alabama have increased 15% (from 6,929 to 7,935) while Covid hospitalizations in Alabama remained essentially flat, barely rising from 306 to 310 patients. Alabama does not participate in the National Wastewater Surveillance System (NWSS), so reported cases remain our best metric for measuring community spread. Since most at-home positive results don’t get reported, it’s impossible to know Alabama’s true Covid case count. However, these data reflect that the expected summer surge is slow to get off the ground.
The United States as a whole experienced just a 2% rise in reported cases over the last 14 days and a 5% decline over the last 7 days. Alabama is one of 19 states in which reported cases rose this week, joining 6 other Southern states and 11 midwestern and western states. There are 30 states with Covid patient populations currently growing faster than Alabama’s.
Last week, I alerted readers to the 24-hour testing requirement for travelers (including U.S. citizens) entering the United States. That regulation was not new but it seemed particularly relevant due to the impending summer travel season. Well, my timing was impeccable. The day after my letter was published, the State Department rescinded the regulation. Since last Friday, a negative test is no longer required before boarding a flight bound for the United States.
Today, the FDA’s advisory committee formally recommended Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine for use in children and adolescents ages 6 to 17, which is a necessary prelude to the FDA’s approval for its use. This age group has had access to Pfizer-BioNTech shots since last year. Far more consequential will be the advisory committee’s approval, expected tomorrow, of the use of the Moderna vaccine for children 6 months through 5 years old, and the Pfizer vaccine for children 6 months through 4 years old. This will set the stage for shots to be available next week to the 19 million children in this age group.
The Moderna regimen — two doses, given four weeks apart — was shown in studies to be 51% effective in preventing illness in children between 6 months and 2 years old and 37% effective in children 2 to 5 years old. The Pfizer regimen is three shots. The second dose is given three weeks after the first. The next shot comes two months later. The final efficacy of that vaccine is not known, but an early analysis indicated it was 80% effective against symptomatic illness.
Most young children are expected to receive the vaccine in pediatricians’ offices. For families without regular access to a pediatrician, the federal government will give money to states to run vaccination clinics. Pharmacies will also have limited supplies for children who are at least 3 years old. Now, here are the daily case totals for the last 14 days:
6/1 - 971
6/2 - 1,095
6/3 - not reporting
6/4 - not reporting
6/5 - not reporting
6/6 - 3,679
6/7 - 1,184
6/8 - 1,065
6/9 - 1,221
6/10 - 1,183
6/11 - not reporting
6/12 - not reporting
6/13 - 2,960
6/14 - 1,506