June 14, 2020 - Rising Cases Inevitably Lead to More Hospitalizations
Rising Cases Inevitably Lead to More Hospitalizations
June 14, 2020
Three weeks ago, I repeated the story by a leading virologist which compared the COVID-19 contagion to a pond with an invasive lily. After 30 days, the pond was completely covered by lilypads and the owner was asked when the pond was halfway clear. The owner responded, “Yesterday”. This virologist was making an important point about the power of exponential reproduction in the case of a highly contagious novel virus.
Fortunately, the COVID-19 reproduction rate in Alabama has not reached the point of doubling every day. Yet, today’s report of 1,014 cases is extremely troubling after three straight days of more than 800 new cases. The 7-day average for new cases now stands at 724, which is more than double the 7-day average of 316 new cases reached exactly one week ago. According to a Washington Post article published even before the release of today’s shocking data, Alabama’s percentage increase in new cases is the highest in the nation.
It bears repeating that more testing is not the driver of this increase. We know this because the 7-day average positivity rate jumped to 13.39% from 9.49% yesterday; it has more than doubled since it stood at 5.89% exactly one week ago. ADPH reported that daily hospitalizations dropped today, but this reprieve is likely short-lived. New cases translate into hospitalizations at the rate of 8.8%, based on historical data, and about 3% of all persons who are diagnosed will ultimately die from the disease. That means we can expect about 80-90 new daily hospitalizations pretty soon, which is 2-3 times our current average daily rate of 33 hospitalizations. Even after accounting for daily discharges and deaths, the net increase in hospitalizations will not be sustainable for long.
Here are the 14-day totals:
6/1 - 294
6/2 - 136
6/3 - 85
6/4 - 221
6/5 - 640
6/6 - 458
6/7 - 457
6/8 - 425
6/9 - 497
6/10 - 567
6/11 - 856
6/12 - 865
6/13 - 891
6/14 - 1,041
With 147 new cases, Montgomery Co. surpassed Mobile Co. as the county with the most total cases in the state (2,791). Jefferson Co. had 65 new cases while Madison Co. was third with 60 cases, which is a troubling new record for that county. According to al.com, 31 of the state’s 67 counties reached an all-time high in new daily cases.