June 13, 2021
As of tomorrow, we will be exactly 2 weeks out from Memorial Day. Last year, the Memorial Day weekend was a super-spreader event that began to gather steam right about now. At the 2-week mark last year, Alabama reported 425 cases. During the week that followed, the 7-day moving average of new cases rose to 700 cases per day before peaking at over 2,600 cases per day in late July. The next time Alabama saw a day when as few as 425 cases were reported in a single day was in March 2021, 9 months after Memorial Day 2020.
Due to vaccinations, I do not expect this year's Memorial Day weekend to replicate last year’s. But, if there is an uptick caused by the holiday, we should begin to see it in the numbers next week. Since my last letter on Wednesday, there were 290 new cases reported on Thursday and 188 new cases reported Friday (ADPH does not report data on weekends). The 7-day average this week was 248 cases per day, a decline of 20.3% over the prior week. However, the 7-day average for deaths was 10 per day, a rise of 42.9% over the prior week.
Hospitalizations saw a significant rise on Friday as well - from 1.97 to 2.67 patients per hospital (262 patients in 98 reporting hospitals). The precipitating factor for this rise is unclear - it is likely a natural byproduct of the mini-surge in cases we experienced 2 weeks ago (hospitalizations are a lagging indicator). There is no evidence (yet) that the rise is related to the emergence of the Delta variant in the U.S. That variant, which has devastated India and spread across the U.K. has now arrived on our shores. Dr. Peter Hotez, co-director of the Center for Vaccine Development at Texas Children’s Hospital, said, “I’m really holding my breath about the South and what happens over the summer”, noting that fewer than 10% of adolescents are vaccinated in many southern states. Only 7% of Alabama residents aged 12-17 have received at least one dose.
Last week, however, witnessed a surprising upswing in vaccinations, though Alabama’s daily average remains far below what it was earlier this spring. An average of 10.3K doses per day were administered, more than doubling the average from the week before. Alabama has now administered at least one dose to 1,805,486 people, covering 43.1% of the eligible 12 and older population, and 36.8% of the state’s entire population. At least 1,485,108 people have been fully vaccinated, or 30.3% of the state’s entire population.
President Biden has set a goal to administer at least one dose to 70% of U.S. adults by July 4. Harry Enten, the respected statistician and former analyst for FiveThirtyEight, wrote that it is increasingly apparent the U.S. will fall just short of Biden’s goal, which is primarily due to the vaccine partisan divide. As of Thursday, 69.9% of adults in the average state Biden won have received at least one dose, whereas in states won by Trump, an average of only 54.9% of adults have received at least one dose.
Of the 25 states Biden won, 13 have already crossed the 70% threshold and 7 more have surpassed 67%. In no state that Trump won has 67% of adults received at least one vaccine dose. The closest is Nebraska (62.8%). Even worse is that the vaccine gap between blue states and red states is getting wider. A month ago, the gap was 13 points (64% and 51%) and it is 15 points now. Enten noted that the vaccination rates among children in a state are highly correlated with the adult vaccination rates, which is an ominous thought considering that the Delta variant continues to grow as a share of Covid-19 cases in the U.S. The totals:
5/27 - 346
5/28 - 228
6/1 - 640
6/2 - 553
6/3 - 430
6/4 - 557
6/7 - 739
6/8 - 216
6/9 - 305
6/10 - 290
6/11 - 188