June 11, 2020 - The Day We Feared
The Day We Feared
June 11, 2020
This is the day we all feared was coming - Alabama reported 856 new COVID-19 cases today (including “probables”), an explosive number that shatters the prior daily record of 640 set on June 5. The prior record likely included catch-up data following the resolution of the State’s IT issues. There is nothing ambiguous about today’s number. Alabama is standing at the precipice of an unprecedented health crisis and it is unclear if our state leaders have either the resources or the will to deal with it.
The causes of this explosion will likely be the subject of much debate. Although there was a slight increase in testing over the last several days, the 7-day positivity rate has increased by almost three percentage points (5.83% to 8.53%) in just four days. That debunks the notion that testing is responsible for the increase. Some will point to the recent protest rallies in Birmingham and Huntsville but a county-by-county analysis of new cases (see below) largely contradicts the idea that these rallies were a major contributor (Jefferson County and Madison County comprised only 9% of the new cases). Having witnessed the cavalier attitudes toward mask-wearing and social distancing that prevail in my state, I believe today’s number was as inevitable as it is tragic, the culmination of irresponsible behavior since our reopening that was entirely avoidable.
Today’s number was fueled by 146 new cases in Montgomery County alone; the previous high in that county was 110. Jefferson County had 63 new cases, which is well below its daily record of 77. Tuscaloosa County had 61 new cases, also a new record, but Mobile had “only” 48 cases, far fewer than its record of 80. There were fully 27 counties in Alabama that saw double digit increases in cases today and 34 counties (over half of the State’s 67 counties) had at least 8 new cases. The counties that contributed to today’s spike are located throughout the State -- north Alabama (Marshall-22; Morgan-21; Franklin-20; and Madison-15); Black Belt (Dallas-31; Lowndes-19); east Alabama (Lee-20; Russell-14; Chambers-16); the Wiregrass (Pike-17; Monroe-16; and Houston-11); and coastal Alabama (Baldwin-12).
So, where do we go from here? So far, the number of hospitalizations has increased but has not yet overwhelmed our hospitals (the total confirmed hospitalizations in the state reached a record 647 today). We can only hope that continues.
Here are the 14-day totals:
5/29 - 511
5/30 - 616
5/31 - 593
6/1 - 294
6/2 - 136
6/3 - 85
6/4 - 221
6/5 - 640
6/6 - 458
6/7 - 457
6/8 - 425
6/9 - 497
6/10 - 567
6/11 - 856