July 9, 2022
For the first time since February 15, Alabama’s 7-day average of new reported cases exceeds 2,000 per day - 2,090 to be exact. Of course, the true count of new cases exceeds the reported count by a factor of anywhere from 5x to 10x – no one knows for sure since at-home tests are typically not reported. Alabama’s per capita rate of 43 reported cases per 100K population is higher than in all but 4 states - Oklahoma being the highest (51 cases per 100K), and Vermont the lowest (11 per 100K). Alabama’s rate of increase this week (14%) is higher than in all but 6 states.
The hospitalization trend in Alabama follows the same trajectory as reported cases. The statewide Covid patient count is now 701 (including 93 in intensive care), topping 700 for the first time since March 3. Our rate of 14 patients per 100K population is higher than in all but 5 states - Florida, Nevada and Delaware being the highest (19 per 100K), and Vermont again being the lowest (3 per 100K). Alabama’s rate of increase in hospitalizations (14%) is higher than in all but 6 states.
A week ago, two Omicron subvariants - BA.4 and BA.5 - were competing for dominance. Today, BA.5 has clearly emerged as the dominant strain, representing 53.6% of sequenced cases in the U.S. BA.5 and BA.4 (16.5% of cases) are able to evade some antibodies produced by vaccinations and infections, including infections caused by other versions of Omicron. However, researchers in South Africa recently reported that BA.4 and BA.5 do not appear to cause significantly more severe disease than the first Omicron wave.
Overall hospitalizations in the United States now stand at 38,259, a rise of 11% in the past week. Only 4 states saw their hospitalizations decline by more than 5%, while 38 states saw a rise of more than 5%. While a patient population of 38,000+ may seem like a high number (it’s the highest since March 3), it is also important to put this number in context. Since October 5, 2020 - 641 days ago - the number of Covid patients in U.S. hospitals has exceeded today’s total on 433 of those days, or exactly 2/3rds of the time. In other words, it is a testament to the severity-reducing success of vaccines that hospitalizations have remained comparatively low despite a surge that is currently producing 1 million “true cases” per day in the United States, according to epidemiologist Dr. Katelyn Jetelina.
The BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants are also driving a summertime surge in Europe, where most Covid policies were removed last spring and a more relaxed approach to the pandemic has become the norm. As in the U.S., many European countries have seen an uptick in hospitalizations, but “what we’re not seeing is an increase in intensive care unit admissions, so the vaccines are still very much working,” according to Dr. Michael Ryan, the executive director of the World Health Organization’s Health Emergencies Program.
What does this all mean for us? It’s clear this summertime surge must be taken very seriously. The likelihood of getting Covid-19 is probably higher today than at any time other than the original Omicron surge last January. Yet, if you stay current on your vaccinations, the likelihood of landing in the hospital with Covid is quite low. That is, unless you are immunocompromised. You may reduce your chances of getting infected by wearing a mask when you find yourself in a confined space or in a large group.
Finally, if you believe you’ve been exposed, and especially if you feel symptoms, it is essential that you quickly get a prescription for the antiviral Paxlovid, which can now be prescribed by pharmacists as well as your doctor. The F.D.A. recommends that Covid patients seeking a prescription for Paxlovid pills from a pharmacist should bring records of their recent blood tests and a list of the other medications they take. The pharmacist is supposed to review the records for potential kidney or liver problems or other potential problematic interactions. Pharmacists are required to refer patients to other prescribers if the records and information about the patient’s other medications are not available. The totals:
6/25 - not reporting
6/26 - not reporting
6/27 - 4,467
6/28 - 2,180
6/29 - 2,425
6/30 - 1,926
7/1 - 1,785
7/2 - not reporting
7/3 - not reporting
7/4 - 3,337
7/5 - 806
7/6 - 4,376
7/7 - 3,222
7/8 - 2,892