July 9, 2020 - Big Big Trouble in Dixie
Big Big Trouble in Dixie
July 9, 2020
The COVID-19 crisis took a dramatic turn in Alabama today. Twenty-four hours after the U.S. surpassed 60,000 cases for the first time, Alabama’s infection count nearly doubled in a single day. ADPH reported 2,212 cases of infection today (incl. probables) compared with 1,177 yesterday. Although this news is shocking, it frankly is not surprising. When you see what is happening all around us - in Florida, Georgia, Mississippi and Tennessee - it was just a matter of time. To reach this level of new cases, Alabama’s positivity rate (7-day average) jumped from 14.69% to 18.51%, the largest single-day increase in months.
One-third of Alabama’s total 49,174 cases since March have occurred over the last two weeks, making it one of the fastest-developing hotspots in the world. According to a NY Times article published yesterday, Alabama has seen more new cases per capita in the last 7 days than all but four U.S. states, even more than the country of Brazil. Only Arizona, Florida, SC and Louisiana had a higher increase in per capita cases … and that does not even take into account the shocking spike today.
The number of COVID patients in Alabama hospitals rose from 1,110 yesterday to 1,125 today. While that might not seem like a large increase, it is important to remember that regional differences in available hospital beds become more acute as hospitals statewide near capacity. For example, consider the Alabama Hospital Assn’s announcement that 206 ICU beds were available statewide yesterday (equivalent to 88% capacity), but only 3 out of 106 ICU beds were available in Montgomery. Yesterday in Florida, hospitals were operating at 84% ICU capacity statewide, yet five of Central Florida’s largest hospitals announced they had run out of ICU beds.
I don’t know how this is going to end but here’s the thing: neither does the Ivey Administration. In the absence of a national strategy, governors were handed the responsibility to deal with this crisis. Yet, we have heard little from Gov. Ivey. On the eve of schools opening in August, we don’t seem to have a plan. And that is a big problem. Now, for the 14-day totals:
6/26 - 977
6/27 - 900
6/28 - 1,046
6/29 - 1,047
6/30 - 870
7/1 - 917
7/2 - 1,162
7/3 - 1,754
7/4 - 997
7/5 - 1,091
7/6 - 925
7/7 - 907
7/8 - 1,110
7/9 - 2,212
The rise in cases is widespread throughout the State. Jefferson Co. had the most new cases (343), followed by Madison (287), Tuscaloosa (162), Mobile (103), Shelby (95) and Baldwin (75). Remarkably, Montgomery County had only 64 new cases.