July 7, 2021
Over the 11 days since my last letter to you on June 26, Alabama has averaged 271 new cases per day, 58% more than the 172 per day average over the prior 7 days. For the last 5 days, that daily average increased to 323 new cases per day, 88% more than the week leading up to my last letter. As of today, there are 256 patients in 108 reporting hospitals, or 2.37 patients per hospital, compared to 1.59 patients per hospital when I last wrote to you. That is a 49% rise in hospitalizations since June 26 and the highest rate in over one month.
The Delta variant, a more transmissible and potentially more dangerous strain of the virus, now makes up 51.7% of all new Covid-19 infections in the U.S., according to the CDC. And the South, Southwest and Midwest are bearing the brunt. Over the last 7 days, the states with the highest per capita infection rates are those where the Delta variant made an early appearance and vaccination rates are low - Missouri (17 per 100K); Arkansas (16 per 100K); Nevada (14 per 100K); Utah (12 per 100K); Louisiana (11 per 100K); Wyoming (11 per 100K); and Florida (10 per 100K). (I wrote about Missouri’s battle with the Delta variant on June 20). Alabama is tied for 13th highest per capita rate over the same period.
As the Delta variant sweeps across the globe, however, confidence in the mRNA vaccines to combat it has grown. In Britain, a study reported in May found that two doses of the Pfizer vaccine had 88% efficacy against Delta. A June study from Scotland concluded the vaccine was 79% effective against the variant. And on Saturday, researchers in Canada reported its effectiveness at 87%.
Meanwhile, data released by J&J in July indicate that its vaccine also protects against the Delta variant and immunity may be long-lasting. The data come from two small-sample studies, which have not yet been peer reviewed and were conducted in laboratories. One study showed that the J&J vaccine produces a higher number of antibodies in the presence of the Delta variant than the Beta (a/k/a South Africa) variant. The second study concluded that the immune response lasts at least eight months. Although the J&J vaccine’s efficacy rate ranges between 57-72%, depending on the study, compared to an efficacy rate for Pfizer/Moderna of 90% or more, that is more effective than the average flu vaccine, which is typically less than 60% effective. Some experts advocate a Pfizer/Moderna booster for persons who previously received the J&J vaccine, but that practice is not yet recommended by the CDC. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/04/johnson-johnson-vaccine-second-dose/ )
So, once again, vaccination is the key to a normal life without fear of this deadly virus - but Alabama’s progress remains painfully slow. Last week, we averaged 6,100 doses administered per day, while just 33% of the State’s entire population is fully vaccinated (national average = 47.5%). The U.S. is currently on pace to give at least one dose to 70% of all U.S. adults by August 6. However, Alabama is not on pace to reach that milestone before April, 2022 … if ever. The totals:
6/23 - 191
6/25 - 540
6/28 - 517
6/30 - 532
7/2 - 315
7/7 - 1,613