July 7, 2020 - Hospitals Filling Up Fast
Hospitals Filling Up Fast
July 7, 2020
For several days, the data’s headline was the surging number of cases. Today, it saddens me to say the case count takes a backseat to hospitalizations and deaths. There were 907 new cases (incl. probables), not good, but the fewest since the 900 cases reported on June 27. The truly frightening statistic is 1,073 current hospitalizations, a net increase of 255 in just three days. UAB reported it has 92 COVID-19 patients, more than double its 44 patients exactly one month ago. It bears repeating - surging cases lead to rising hospitalizations, which usually lead to more deaths.
Whatever solace was gained by two days of no deaths was shattered when ADPH reported 26 deaths (incl. probables) today. It was the worst total in a single day since May 12 and could be tied to the zero death count for the prior two days or might be an early sign of a spike in deaths to come. Only time will tell. As I said yesterday, deaths will be determined by our success in keeping hospitals from becoming overwhelmed. The last few days have not been encouraging in that regard.
An alarm bell sounded in Arizona today when it reported 117 deaths, which exceed the previous high for a single day of 80, set on July 1. This serves as a warning of what to expect if our hospitals are unable to cope. As the median age of COVID-19 patients has dropped, the death count has declined. But, as Dr. Fauci confirmed in his press briefing with Sen. Doug Jones this morning, there are many examples of 20 and 30 year olds who develop severe cases requiring hospitalization and intensive care. A grim outcome involving significant physical damage awaits many of those young patients who survive.
Last Friday, our rocket ship launched when 1,754 cases were reported. We have reached cruising speed and the question now is, will there be time to turn the ship around? Dr. Fauci offered hope that is still possible. Face coverings, he said, make a big difference in reducing human transmission. It is the biggest tool in the toolkit.
At 5:00 pm today, Madison County’s order requiring face masks in public goes into effect. Madison joins Jefferson and Mobile counties and the cities of Birmingham, Montgomery and Tuscaloosa in mandating their use. Gov. Ivey has said she will not impose a statewide order but this is a good start.
Here are the 14-day totals:
6/24 - 967
6/25 - 1,142
6/26 - 977
6/27 - 900
6/28 - 1,046
6/29 - 1,047
6/30 - 870
7/1 - 917
7/2 - 1,162
7/3 - 1,754
7/4 - 997
7/5 - 1,091
7/6 - 925
7/7 - 907
Mobile Co. led the way with 90 new cases, followed by Montgomery Co. with 88 and Baldwin Co. with 86. The Baldwin Co. number is cause for special concern because the beaches at Gulf Shores and Orange Beach remain open and draw visitors from everywhere.