July 6, 2020 - Deaths On The Rise
Deaths On The Rise
July 6, 2020
There were 925 more cases reported in Alabama today, which is the 12th of the last 13 days with more than 900 cases. It is worrisome that the 14-day average positivity rate reached a record 12.9%, a clear indication the contagion is getting worse. Even more worrisome, ADPH reported there are 1,016 people currently hospitalized with COVID-19, an enormous increase from 818 hospitalizations two days ago and 650 just barely a week ago.
At the same time, it is important to acknowledge there were no COVID-related deaths for the second straight day. Taking into account the last two days, the 7-day average death rate stands at 11.29, which is squarely in the middle of a six-week range of between 14.14 and 6.43 deaths per day.
In the United States as a whole, the death rate peaked in mid-April at just over 2,500, then steadily declined to around 600 by June 2, then spiked to around 850-900 on June 24, before declining again to under 600 today. In the Northeast and Midwest, early hard-hit states have seen a sharp and steady decline in deaths since the end of April, while Southern and Western states have experienced either level or gradually increasing death rates. The death rate in the U.S. is a long way from being the lowest in the world, as falsely claimed by the White House Press Secretary today (the U.S. rate is still higher than Brazil, for pete’s sake), but it is getting better.
So, why are deaths not increasing at the same rate as the rapidly increasing rate of new cases during the same period? For one thing, the CDC estimates that death, when it occurs, tends to trail initial infection by two to four weeks. The lower death rate in Alabama over the last several days is, in part, a reflection of the lower infection rate in early June.
Other factors have been identified to explain the lower death rate: (1) increased testing, which has led to earlier diagnosis/intervention; (2) reduced hospitalizations, which have eased the strain on medical staff and supply chains; (3) knowledge and experience gained by medical professionals (e.g., use of blood thinners, dexamethasone, a steroid); (4) younger patient population (e.g.median age of patients in Florida testing positive has dropped from 65 to 35); and (5) more cautious behavior, especially among people in vulnerable populations, like the elderly.
If Alabama’s hospitals do not become overwhelmed, then our death rate may benefit from these factors. But, here’s the thing. Our hospitalization rate increased by 56% in the last week and is showing signs of spiraling out of control. If that continues, you can expect our death rate to rise. There is so much we don’t know about this pandemic but we do know this: the coronavirus is no less deadly now than it was when it first arrived on our shores.
Here are the 14-day case totals:
6/23 - 643
6/24 - 967
6/25 - 1,142
6/26 - 977
6/27 - 900
6/28 - 1,046
6/29 - 1,047
6/30 - 870
7/1 - 917
7/2 - 1,162
7/3 - 1,754
7/4 - 997
7/5 - 1,091
7/6 - 925
With 189 new cases, Jefferson Co. is the State’s hotspot. Madison (61), Shelby (50) and Mobile (49) followed. Escambia County, home of Brewton and Atmore, had 46 new cases.