July 31, 2020 - Debunking Notion that It's Just Like the Flu
Debunking Notion that It's Just Like the Flu
July 31, 2020
It is increasingly clear that cases are again on the upswing in Alabama. There were 1,961 more cases (incl. 173 probables) today, after 1,980 cases yesterday. There were 9,181 tests, which is slightly above the 7-day average of 8,500 tests. The weekly positivity rate rose from 19.1% to 19.5%. Only Arizona and Mississippi have a higher weekly positivity rate.
There were 17 more deaths (incl. 2 probables), and the State’s deaths now total 1,580 (incl. 49 probables). In an al.com article today, Ramsey Archibald utterly destroyed the myth that COVID-19 is “just like the flu”. In Alabama over the last 20 years, he wrote, the flu has averaged 1,048 deaths per year and has never exceeded 1,268 deaths in any single year. COVID-19 has already surpassed that number with no end in sight. At its current pace, the virus will kill upwards of 5,000 Alabamians. His most shocking revelation: Lowndes County has now seen twice as many COVID-19 deaths as those caused by the flu over the last 10 years COMBINED.
ADPH revised its hospitalizations data, increasing yesterday’s number to 1,642 from 1,595, but then reported that the number had returned to 1,596 today. According to the head of the Alabama Hospital Assn, all but 190 ICU beds are filled, but he quickly added, “Beds are not the problem.The problem is staffing ... [Doctors and nurses] are emotionally exhausted, they’re physically exhausted. And a significant percentage of our cases have been health care workers.”
As schools start to open, the CDC released a new study of 597 overnight campers in Georgia with sobering results. Out of 344 campers tested (median age: 17 years), 76% tested positive and, out of those who tested positive, 74% demonstrated symptoms. These results are consistent with a recently published study of 65,000 people in South Korea which found that children between the ages of 10 and 19 can spread the virus as broadly as adults do.
In his Congressional testimony today, Dr. Fauci referred to the South Korea study while rebutting the President’s opinion that “kids don’t transmit” coronavirus. It is likely this study also influenced new guidelines announced by the Jefferson Co. Health Officer, Dr. Mark Wilson, for schools to open with virtual classrooms starting in the 6th grade.
Now, for the 14-day totals:
7/18 - 2,143
7/19 - 1,777
7/20 - 1,880
7/21 - 1,467
7/22 - 1,455
7/23 - 2,399
7/24 - 1,793
7/25 - 2,125
7/26 - 1,164
7/27 - 1,821
7/28 - 1,251
7/29 - 1,416
7/30 - 1,980
7/31 - 1,961
Jefferson (255), Mobile (205), Calhoun (112) were the leaders, which was a record for Calhoun. Here is the 14-day positivity rate for each of the 10 most populous counties: Calhoun (18.78%); Baldwin (18.42%); Montgomery (15.73%); Lee (14.33%); Mobile (13.64%; Morgan (13.02%); Tuscaloosa (10.85%); Shelby (10.84%); Jefferson (10.66%); and Madison (9.75%).