July 28, 2020 - Mandatory Mask Order
Mandatory Mask Order
July 28, 2020
This column comes to you a bit late today because I’ve been waiting for ADPH to update its daily test results. ADPH has struggled lately to meet its own deadlines for posting data. I could tell the test data it posted this morning was incomplete. The updated numbers are more consistent with recent data.
Today’s case count represents a continuation of the roller coaster ride we’ve been on recently - from 2,145 cases on Saturday, to 1,164 on Sunday, to 1,821 on Monday, to 1,251 (incl. 71 probables) today. Our average over just the last four days is 1,595, and the 7-day average of new cases has declined significantly from its July 19 peak of 1,918 to 1,715 today. Despite the violent swings in daily numbers, the trend is in the right direction.
There were 8,368 tests reported, which is an increase from yesterday. Our 7-day average of tests, however, almost exactly mirrors the decline in the 7-day average of cases - after setting a record 11,775 on July 16, the 7-day average has declined to 9,177 today. Since both cases and tests have dropped proportionately, the all-important positivity rate has declined only slightly - from 18.62% to 18.2%. At least, the positivity rate is not continuing to rise.
Hospitalizations have also continued to remain pretty stable - standing at 1,598 today compared to 1,599 yesterday. For the last week, the 7-day average of current hospitalizations has hovered between 1,490 and 1,541. Although many individual hospitals are experiencing record inpatients, the statewide hospital system appears able to cope, but just barely. The head of the Alabama Hospital Assn stated today there are just 168 ICU beds open across the State, which is the first time since the pandemic began that available ICU beds dropped below 200.
Bottom line: our new case curve appears to be flattening and our positivity rate is leveling off, but our hospital capacity remains stretched almost to its limit. If Gov. Ivey’s “mandatory mask order” - weak tea that is - is responsible for the modest improvement in recent days, I will gladly eat a healthy dose of crow. If so, it comes just in time for school openings and the start of football season, both of which are cause for concern. Before that happens, we need to see these numbers decline more consistently.
Until then … here are the totals:
7/15 - 1,817
7/16 - 2,021
7/17 - 2,003
7/18 - 2,143
7/19 - 1,777
7/20 - 1,880
7/21 - 1,467
7/22 - 1,455
7/23 - 2,399
7/24 - 1,793
7/25 - 2,125
7/26 - 1,164
7/27 - 1,821
7/28 - 1,251
Jefferson (143), Mobile (134) and Madison (113) are the three counties with more than 100 cases.