July 26, 2020 - Searching For a Ray of Hope
Searching For a Ray of Hope
July 26, 2020
We can all use a ray of hope right now. It therefore gives me great pleasure to tell you that Alabama saw a steep drop in new cases today - 1,164 (incl. 127 probables). That is a 981-case drop compared to yesterday, easily the largest single-day drop in cases since the pandemic began. There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of the number, which I will explain in a moment, but a decline of nearly 1,000 cases in a single day is significant no matter how you slice it. The last day ADPH reported fewer cases was July 7, when there were only 907.
Before victory can be declared, however, I must note some mitigating factors. First, this is only one day. Remember -the original White House guidelines in April (which the White House immediately ignored) called for 14 consecutive days of decline in cases before reopenings can occur. We have seen one-day declines before that were immediately followed by a rise in cases.
Second, weekend data is always spotty because labs are less reliable when reporting the results of their tests. There were only 7,948 tests reported statewide today, compared to 12,451 yesterday and well below the 7-day average of 9,479. The one-day positivity rate is 14.6% (1,164 divided by 7,948) which is below yesterday’s rate (17.2%) but still way too high. The 7-day average remains over 19%.
Though new cases declined, there were 17 more deaths (incl. 2 probables). Current hospitalizations ticked up to 1,505, 40 more than yesterday, despite the fact that fewer hospitals filed reports to ADPH (95 hospitals today vs 99 yesterday and 111 just three days ago). Although the hospitalization curve seems to have flattened over the last 7 days, there is no sign it is beginning to decline. ADPH has had difficulty collecting hospitalization data recently and I hope this isn’t due to the federal shift in reporting requirements on hospitals from CDC to Health and Human Services Dept.
There may be reason to hope that today’s decline in cases is not just a one-day fluke. The Governor’s Amended Safe at Home Order, sometimes referred to as the “mandatory mask order”, took effect on July 16, exactly 10 days ago. I am not so sanguine about the effectiveness of this order, but maybe it deserves more credit than I have given it. Perhaps the message is finally sinking in with the public that this crisis is serious and they will be held accountable. We should know in the next few days if our State has turned a corner. Here are the 14-day totals:
7/13 - 1,958
7/14 - 1,710
7/15 - 1,817
7/16 - 2,021
7/17 - 2,003
7/18 - 2,143
7/19 - 1,777
7/20 - 1,880
7/21 - 1,467
7/22 - 1,455
7/23 - 2,399
7/24 - 1,793
7/25 - 2,125
7/26 - 1,164
All of the most populous counties had totals that were below their 7-day average.