July 25, 2020 - Behavior Matters
Behavior Matters
July 25, 2020
It is Saturday again, and that means we made it through another week here in Alabama. The best way to characterize the week that just ended is that our COVID-19 data worsened slightly compared to the prior week….except for current hospitalizations, which worsened more. The average of new cases for the week ended 7/24 was 1,845 vs 1,798 the week before. The weekly average of deaths was 24.7 vs 23 the week before. The weekly positivity rate was 19.6% vs 18.1% the week before. And, the weekly average hospitalizations was 1,537 vs 1,301 the week before.
The new week begins with 2,125 cases (incl. 176 probables) and 18 deaths (0 probables). The number of tests jumped today (12,415 vs 7-day average of 9,479) which has caused the positivity rate to tick down from 19.6% to 19.3%. Not much change there. We continue to have the third highest positivity rate in the country, behind only Arizona and Mississippi.
Things aren’t much better in the country as a whole. The U.S. added 73,400 cases yesterday, just shy of a record, and 1,141 deaths. For the first time, eighteen states exceeded 1,000 cases and seven more topped 900. Although the South and West are catching the worst of it (every Deep South state exceeded 1,000 cases, except Arkansas, which had 990), the Midwest and Northeast are also showing signs of worsening.
This crisis is clearly facing a watershed moment. The CARES Act provision that adds a supplement to unemployment compensation expires this week. So does the Act’s moratorium on evictions, which risks leaving an estimated 19-23 million renters homeless. School begins in just a few weeks and, with it, high school and college football. These events raise the heightened risk of infection -- just as the flu season begins to kick in.
It is not my intention to create panic or fear, but to induce heightened vigilance. Surprisingly, the State of Arizona has demonstrated there is still time to make a difference. That state averaged 2,660 new cases per day last week, down from 3,800 earlier this month. According to the NYT, hospitalizations and the use of ventilators also crested and are on their way down. Experts believe that recent mask mandates, targeted restrictions on bars, and similar measures could be having an impact … even in the epicenter of Arizona. We can learn from that experience.
Here are the 14-day totals:
7/12 - 1,640
7/13 - 1,958
7/14 - 1,710
7/15 - 1,817
7/16 - 2,021
7/17 - 2,003
7/18 - 2,143
7/19 - 1,777
7/20 - 1,880
7/21 - 1,467
7/22 - 1,455
7/23 - 2,399
7/24 - 1,793
7/25 - 2,125
Jefferson (286), Mobile (195), Baldwin (147) and Madison (102) exceeded 100 cases. Tuscaloosa (92) and Montgomery (85) were not far behind. Etowah (69) and Dale (61) set new individual records.