July 23, 2022
Just when you think you have this pandemic all figured out, along comes a week like this one. Following 10 consecutive weeks of double-digit percentage increases in reported cases in Alabama (including last week’s 22% increase), I was prepared for the worst, particularly given that the World Games recently concluded in Birmingham. Well, surprise, surprise - Alabama saw just a 4% rise in reported cases this week, which is commensurate with the miniscule 1% rise in the nation as a whole.
While it is good news that the rate of infection barely went up this week, the bad news is that it also did not go down. Our per capita rate of 51 new cases per 100K population is exceeded by only 2 states - Utah (61 per 100K) and California (58 per 100K) - both of which have experienced a wave of summer tourism. It is not clear whether cases in Alabama crested this week or have only paused briefly before continuing to climb.
Alabama’s Covid hospitalization population increased from 766 to 836 this week, a rise of 9%. That’s not too bad but it belies the worsening increase in ICU admissions. Last week, 100 patients were admitted into intensive care. This week, that number rose to 123.
Based on data collected in early June, the National Center for Health Statistics recently found that 40% of Americans have reported getting Covid in the past - a number that’s bound to be an undercount (the CDC estimates that more than 60% have actually contracted Covid, including those who did not report it). Overall, 1 in 13 U.S. adults have reported long-haul symptoms lasting 3 or more months. Nearly 3 times as many adults aged 50-59 suffer long Covid symptoms as those aged 80 and older. And women are more likely than men to get long Covid (9.4% vs. 5.5%). States with the highest percentage of adults with long Covid are Kentucky (12.7%), Alabama (12.1%), and Tennessee/South Dakota (11.6%).
One American who managed to avoid Covid until this week is President Biden. It is striking to compare the way in which that news was reported with that of his predecessor. President Biden is 79 years old, fully vaccinated and boosted. Accordingly, his symptoms are mild, he received Paxlovid and he is on a swift road to recovery. It’s another testament to the miraculous progress in prevention and treatment that is available today.
So, what do the results this week say about where the pandemic is headed? Yogi Berra once famously said, “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” After writing about this pandemic for 2+ years, I’m inclined to agree with Yogi. For now, we see at least a brief pause. Let’s enjoy it while it lasts. The totals:
7/9 - not reporting
7/10 - not reporting
7/11 - 4,575
7/12 - 3,878
7/13 - 2,699
7/14 - 2,893
7/15 - 2,604
7/16 - not reporting
7/17 - not reporting
7/18 - 5,952
7/19 - 2,701
7/20 - 2,907
7/21 - 2,917
7/22 - 2,889