July 22, 2020 - Top Ten in Everything
Top Ten in Everything
July 22, 2020
On February 29, just 145 days ago, the CDC announced the first COVID-19 death in the U.S., a man in his ‘50’s who had lived with his family in the Seattle area. Since then, more than 145,000 Americans have perished (average: 1,000 deaths per day), which is roughly the equivalent of 500 plane crashes, 49 terrorist attacks the equal of 9/11, 32 Iraq Wars, 2 ½ Vietnam Wars.
Throughout April and May, as the virus ravaged the Northeast and Upper Midwest, the death count invariably topped 1,000 per day. The U.S. finally dipped below that milestone on June 10 and went six straight weeks without topping 1,000 again. That all changed yesterday, when 1,122 Americans died ... and we are on track to blow past that number today.
Here, in Alabama, we rank in the Top 10 of all U.S. states in per capita cases. We have been more fortunate in terms of deaths, however, ranking 21st in per capita mortality. That could be about to change. Today, ADPH reported a record 61 deaths (incl. 4 probables), which is more than triple our 7-day average death rate of 18. To repeat what’s been said before, when the hospitalization rate climbs, a higher death rate cannot be far behind. That appears to be what's happening in our State. An additional 210 new hospitalizations were reported today, though ADPH stated it will be unable to update the number of current patients before 1:00 pm tomorrow.
Alabama reached 71,833 total cases today (incl. 1,400 probables) but the daily total fell from 1,467 to 1,455 (incl. 117 probables). I do not know, for certain, why the rise in probable cases is suddenly accelerating, but I suspect the reason is related to longer delays in reporting test results. Remember - a “probable” is defined as a person who has been in close physical proximity to a confirmed case and exhibits clinical symptoms of the virus, but has not received a confirmatory test. If, as reported, the wait time for test results has grown to 5-7 days, the number of probables will naturally increase.
For the third straight day, Alabama performed fewer tests (8,992) than its 10,000+ daily average, resulting in a single-day positivity rate (1,455 divided by 8,992) above 16% and a 7-day average positivity rate of 18.6%, behind only Arizona, Florida, Nevada and Idaho.
Here are the 14-day totals:
7/9 - 2,212
7/10 - 1,334
7/11 - 1,402
7/12 - 1,640
7/13 - 1,958
7/14 - 1,710
7/15 - 1,817
7/16 - 2,021
7/17 - 2,003
7/18 - 2,143
7/19 - 1,777
7/20 - 1,880
7/21 - 1,467
7/22 - 1,455
Jefferson Co. (187) and Mobile Co.(164) again topped the list for new cases.