July 21, 2020 - Why Does President Trump Want Less Testing?
Why Does President Trump Want Less Testing?
July 21, 2020 - UPDATED at 7:45 pm with new hospitalization data *
There is some good news in today’s report. I only wish the news were unequivocally good. It is certainly a hopeful sign that the number of new cases declined significantly from 1,880 yesterday to 1,467 (incl. 103 probables), a 22% decline. Twelve COVID-related deaths (including one probable) were reported, which is below the State’s average 23/day death rate.
* However, that is where the good news ends. After first reporting that the number of hospitalizations had declined, if only slightly, to 1,547, Dr. Scott Harris, director of ADPH, announced four hours later that the number had, in fact, increased to a record 1,619, an increase of 56. UAB Hospital reported it is now taking care of 105 COVID patients, also a new record. The head of Alabama's hospital ass'n said he fears that hospitalizations will top 2,000 by next week.
As for the lower case count, it is important to know that this number is offset by an important mitigating factor. Only 6,490 tests were reported today, which is significantly below the State’s 7-day average of 10,500+ tests. That means the positivity rate for just this one day (1,467 divided by 6,490) is 22.6%. As a result, the 7-day average positivity rate remained 18%, essentially unchanged from yesterday and much too high. Before I can become cautiously optimistic, I would have to see testing increase at the same time that positive cases decrease, resulting in a declining positivity rate. We are definitely not there yet.
The importance of testing is highlighted by the large CDC study data released today showing that the actual number of infected people in 10 different cities and states ranged between 2 and 13 times higher than the reported cases. This gap between actual infection and reported cases decreased in those parts of the country where testing was more pervasive. The reason, according to the CDC, appears to be linked to the high percentage of infected people (~40%) who exhibit no symptoms but are, nevertheless, highly contagious. In those places that had more testing, these asymptomatic carriers could be identified and appropriately isolated.
Unfortunately, the President and many Senate Republicans appear to be firmly opposed to more funds for expanded testing in the next relief bill. President Trump has often said he wants to see fewer tests, not more, because more testing identifies more cases, which is bad for public relations. As the results of the latest CDC study demonstrate, the failure to fund adequate testing would be one more in a long list of tragic mistakes. Until science-based problem-solving becomes our nation’s highest priority, this pandemic is likely to continue to have a grip on us. Below are the 14-day totals:
7/8 - 1,110
7/9 - 2,212
7/10 - 1,334
7/11 - 1,402
7/12 - 1,640
7/13 - 1,958
7/14 - 1,710
7/15 - 1,817
7/16 - 2,021
7/17 - 2,003
7/18 - 2,143
7/19 - 1,777
7/20 - 1,880
7/21 - 1,467
Only Jefferson County (187) and Mobile County (129) exceeded 100 new cases today.