July 20, 2020 - 6th Consecutive Record-Setting Day
6th Consecutive Record-Setting Day
July 20, 2020
The slight improvement in yesterday’s data has turned out to be an illusion. There were 1,880 more cases today (incl. 34 probables), which is a higher number than all but 5 other states. In terms of overall cases per capita, we now rank 9th in the country, and climbing, at 1,405 per 100K population.
Our 7-day average positivity rate exceeds 18% for the third consecutive day. Arizona and Florida are the only other states with three straight days of 18% or higher weekly positivity rates. The only silver lining is that we recorded “only” 4 more deaths (incl. one probable) but our 7-day daily average of deaths remains above 23/day.
After a weekend with no hospitalization data, ADPH reported 1,563 current confirmed hospitalizations, an increase of 130 patients, or 9%, since Friday. This is the State’s 6th consecutive record-setting day for hospitalizations, leading Dr. Jeanne Marrazzo, director of the UAB School of Medicine Division of Infectious Disease, to tweet today, “[Alabama’s] ICUs are at capacity in many areas & transfer to tertiary care centers like UAB is compromised.”
Today is the first day, according to ADPH, that the 5-24 age group represents a higher percentage of COVID cases than the 50-64 age group - to be exact, 20.1% compared to 20.0%. The 65 and over age group represents only 16.4% of all cases but 78.9% of all deaths in the State.
The statewide mask order went into effect on July 16, four days ago. It is too early to measure the impact, if any, of the order. Let’s give it at least 10 days to see if it has any meaningful effect. Here are the daily case totals for the last 14 days:
7/7 - 907
7/8 - 1,110
7/9 - 2,212
7/10 - 1,334
7/11 - 1,402
7/12 - 1,640
7/13 - 1,958
7/14 - 1,710
7/15 - 1,817
7/16 - 2,021
7/17 - 2,003
7/18 - 2,143
7/19 - 1,777
7/20 - 1,880
Four counties - Jefferson (261), Madison (133), Mobile (126) and Montgomery (121) - reported more than 100 cases today and only one county - Greene - reported no new cases. Thirty-seven counties have seen their 7-day average of new cases rise by double digits. Among Alabama’s 10 most populous counties, Lee County (8th in population) has the highest 14-day positivity rate (16.7%). The others, in order, are: Montgomery (15.3%); Baldwin (14.6%); Morgan (14.3%); Madison (13.2%); Calhoun (12.6%); Mobile (12.3%); Jefferson (12.0%); Shelby (11.7%); and Tuscaloosa (11.1%).