July 19, 2021 - Countdown

Countdown

July 19, 2021

Alabama’s daily cases continued their upward momentum over the weekend, as 2,343 more cases were reported since Friday. That’s 781 new cases per day on Saturday, Sunday and Monday, which are typically low reporting days. The 7-day moving average is now 815 new cases per day. In the past week, new daily cases rose 45.5%, and the positivity rate rose to 13%. Aside from days when there were backlogs, the daily average this week is comparable to the first week of March.

Unfortunately, hospitalizations rose even more. There are now 469 patients in 102 reporting hospitals or 4.6 patients per hospital, which is a 62% increase over the prior week. Alabama now has a per capita rate of 12 patients per 100K population, tied for 8th in the nation and 50% more than the national average. For those keeping count, we remain well behind Nevada (27 per 100K), Missouri (25 per 100K), Arkansas (24 per 100K) and Florida (20 per 100K). But, our 63% rise in hospitalizations is 4th most in the nation over the last week (behind only Kansas, Louisiana & Alaska).

Fueled by the Delta variant, Alabama’s recent outbreak is generally confined to the unvaccinated. Approximately 33.7% of Alabama’s entire population is fully vaccinated. Among the 20 counties having the fastest rising rate of growth in cases over the last 14 days, 18 of them have vaccination rates below 33%. Those counties include Mobile (31%), Baldwin (31%), Tallapoosa (28%), Blount (19%), Etowah (27%) and Shelby (24%). Jefferson County has a vaccination rate of 39% and, while its average daily cases doubled in the last 14 days, the daily average in the rest of the state more than tripled.

Last July, I remember writing that I imagined we were sitting atop a rocket ship, ready to take off to a frightening and unknown place. Rising hospitalizations were the fuel that would propel us into the abyss of outer space. It feels like that again one year later. Only ... this time, in my imagination, I am fortunate to be one of the spectators gazing up at the sky. That’s because I am vaccinated, and so is the rest of my family. While it is a great relief to know that my family should be safe, I cannot begin to rest easy, knowing that so many innocent lives have been placed in danger. This new surge was entirely preventable, if only politics and disinformation had not interfered.

The Countdown is in its final stages. The totals:

7/7 - 1,613

7/9 - 1,160

7/10 - 534

7/12 - 610

7/14 -1,398

7/15 - 965

7/16 - 999

7/19 - 2,343