July 17, 2020 - Over 2,000 New Cases in Alabama Today
Over 2,000 New Cases in Alabama Today
July 17, 2020
I have received a couple questions about my use of the term, “probables” - namely, what are they and how many? On May 31, ADPH began distinguishing between “confirmed” and “probable” cases. “Confirmed” means the person received a positive test for COVID. “Probable” means the person was epidemiologically linked (i.e. close physical proximity) to a confirmed case and had symptoms meeting the clinical criteria of COVID-19, but was not tested. ADPH took this action in response to CDC’s concern that COVID cases were understated due to limited testing availability.
Through today, Alabama has reported 63,091 cases since the pandemic began, including 980 “probables”, or 1.5% of all cases. It also has reported 1,265 deaths, including 33 “probables”, or 2.6% of all deaths. Early on, I made the decision to include probables in my totals because of (i) the limited availability of testing in Alabama; (ii) the strong likelihood that the probables were infected with COVID; and (iii) the desire to acknowledge those who suffered and, in some cases, died, without access to testing. CDC’s concern was my concern. Probable cases are not merely asymptomatic or part of an affected household; to be classified “probable”, you must exhibit clinical symptoms. I felt, and still do, that a person who suffers or dies from the disease, but cannot get tested, should not be overlooked. Therefore, I will continue to include probables, but I will specifically identify how many probables are recorded each day.
With that preface, Alabama reported 2,003 new cases (incl. 50 probables) and 35 deaths (incl. 3 probables) today. This is the 10th straight day our case count has exceeded 1,000 and the third time it has exceeded 2,000. Our 7-day average positivity rate jumped to 17.32%, which places Alabama among the top 5 or 6 states in the country and is double the rate in the U.S. as a whole (8.61%).
A record 1,416 Alabamians are COVID-19 patients in our hospitals, a net increase of 18 from the day before and 81 in two days. According to the Alabama Hospitals Assn, 14% of ICU beds statewide were available on Thursday afternoon. This morning, I was informed that UAB is opening one more ICU unit and one more ward dedicated exclusively for COVID patients. In addition, UAB is converting the atrium of its North Pavilion Hospital into an additional triage area for the Emergency Department. No doubt, this means even more stress and less rest for the tireless and heroic healthcare workers who staff UAB Hospital.
Now, for the 14-day totals:
7/4 - 997
7/5 - 1,091
7/6 - 925
7/7 - 907
7/8 - 1,110
7/9 - 2,212
7/10 - 1,334
7/11 - 1,402
7/12 - 1,640
7/13 - 1,958
7/14 - 1,710
7/15 - 1,817
7/16 - 2,021
7/17 - 2,003
Jefferson (296), Mobile (199) and Madison (175) counties topped 100 cases again. Of the State’s 67 counties, 37 saw double digit increases.