July 11, 2020 - The World Turned Upside Down
The World Turned Upside Down
July 11, 2020
Yesterday, for the first time, the U.S. saw an increase of more than 70,000 new cases of COVID-19. That is triple the rate in our country only three weeks ago. After recording over 3,500 cases in the last two days, Alabama added 1,402 more cases today. There were nine more deaths, giving us 102 deaths in the last 5 days. The 7-day average positivity rate stands at 14.95% and 1,068 current hospitalizations, a merciful 115-patient decline from yesterday.
The World Turned Upside Down. A British army band actually played a 17th century ballad by that name as Gen. Cornwallis surrendered his army to American troops at Yorktown on October 19, 1781. The hit musical, Hamilton, adapted the theme in a stunning dramatic enactment of the battle that effectively ended the American Revolution. This image of a world turned upside down has run through my mind (also the haunting melody from Hamilton) numerous times since the middle of March.
The image returned when I read yesterday that the leader of Alabama’s state senate - a member of Gov. Ivey’s COVID-19 Task Force - suggested to a reporter that he’d actually like to see more people become infected in order to build herd immunity. If Sen. Del Marsh is interested in herd immunity, I suggest he visit his friends in the Mississippi Legislature, where dozens of legislators -- fully one-sixth of the entire Legislature -- recently tested positive after convening a mask-free special session in June.
The idea of herd immunity - which would require an infection rate of 70% - has proven disastrous in Sweden, the only country that openly tried it. Sweden soon abandoned the policy after watching its citizens die at a rate 8 times higher than Denmark and 19 times higher than Norway. In Alabama, according to Dr. Michael Saag, herd immunity, if it is achievable at all (which is highly doubtful), would require at least 3.4 million people to become infected and would result in tens of thousands of deaths.
The way to defeat this disease is not herd immunity. It is to follow the example of South Korea, Italy, Spain and New York state. There is no substitute for consistent, disciplined mitigation measures to slow the disease until a vaccine is found. This strategy has worked before and will work again, if only we would give it a chance. Now, the 14-day totals:
6/28 - 1,046
6/29 - 1,047
6/30 - 870
7/1 - 917
7/2 - 1,162
7/3 - 1,754
7/4 - 997
7/5 - 1,091
7/6 - 925
7/7 - 907
7/8 - 1,110
7/9 - 2,212
7/10 - 1,334
7/11 - 1,402
Jefferson Co. (214), Madison Co. (136) and Mobile Co. (128) were the only counties with more than 100 cases.