July 10, 2020 - Mothers, Fathers, Sons & Daughters
Mothers, Fathers, Sons & Daughters
July 10, 2020
ADPH announced 1,334 new cases in Alabama today, which fits a familiar pattern. Exactly one week ago, cases spiked 50% to 1,754, before retreating to almost its former level for a few days. Yesterday, cases spiked 100% to 2,212, then declined by 40% today. There is no reason to expect the level of new cases will decline further from here. In fact, another spike may soon be in store.
Why do I say that? Two reasons: the first is Alabama’s elevated positivity rate - i.e. the very high rate of tests that come back positive. The State averaged 11,923 tests over the last two days (a modest increase) but the 2-day average positivity rate (14.9%) and the 7-day average (also 14%) are way too high, higher even than any state but Arizona, Florida and Texas. In other words, we may be testing more but the tests are disclosing an ever-increasing rate of infection.
The second reason is the spiraling hospitalizations, which stand at 1,183, a net increase of 48 over yesterday. Our hospital ICU rate reportedly surpassed 90% and that is not sustainable for long .
By far, the worst news of the day is that 36 more Alabamians reportedly died from COVID-19. According to Johns Hopkins, today’s total breaks Alabama’s previous single-day death record of 32, which occured on May 12 (BamaTracker shows 37 deaths on that day). For virus skeptics and data deniers, the news of record deaths might come as a shock, but it’s actually not surprising.
In the United States, seven states have witnessed single-day death records at least once in the last three days - AL (36); CA (145); FL (120); MS (44); SC (38); TN (25); and TX (131). Seven states also have experienced record 7-day average death rates, including those listed above (except AL), plus Utah. Alabama is knocking on the door of this exclusive group of states with record 7-day averages. Including today, our State has averaged 24 deaths over the last four days, which will shatter the previous 7-day average (17), if the next three days bring more of the same.
What is lost in the debate over death statistics is the deep personal tragedy each death entails. In Alabama, 1,104 individuals have died from this disease. These mothers and fathers, sons and daughters, husbands and wives mostly died alone, many tied to a ventilator ... and all of them were precious in God’s sight. Here are the 14-day case totals:
6/27 - 900
6/28 - 1,046
6/29 - 1,047
6/30 - 870
7/1 - 917
7/2 - 1,162
7/3 - 1,754
7/4 - 997
7/5 - 1,091
7/6 - 925
7/7 - 907
7/8 - 1,110
7/9 - 2,212
7/10 - 1,334
Mobile Co. is the leader today with 209 cases, followed by Jefferson Co. with 189. No other county topped 100.