July 1, 2020 - No Room For Error
No Room For Error
July 1, 2020
A few days ago, I said that a defining feature of COVID-19 is the speed of its spread after it begins to take root. As proof, consider the State of Arizona. On June 1, the state reported 193 new cases - today, one month later, that number is 4,877. On June 1, Arizona’s positivity rate (7-day average) was 8.8% - today, the rate is 24.2%. On June 1, 11 deaths were reported - today, there were 88 deaths.
I raise Arizona as illustrative of what can happen in any state, including our own, that allows its residents to become complacent. In May, the residents of Arizona had reason to believe the worst was over because the positivity rate had reached a low of 3.35% in mid-May after reaching a high of 14% at the end of April. Memorial Day represented the beginning of summer, a time to celebrate. One month later, the hard work that led to lower infections seemingly has been wasted.
Alabama reported 917 new cases today (incl. probables). As bad as this sounds, it compares favorably to 1,806 in Tennessee, 6,563 in Florida, 2,041 in Louisiana, and a record 2,946 in Georgia. It might be tempting to look around and conclude that the growth of COVID-19 has been checked in our state because the daily case count has plateaued between 870 and 1,142 for the last 8 days. If you believe that, please take a moment to remember Arizona.
Experts often point out that a spike in cases inevitably leads to an increase in hospitalizations. We might be seeing that now. ADPH reported 797 hospital patients statewide, which is a dramatic increase over 650 patients reported only three days ago. UAB Hospital reported a record 84 COVID-19 patients.
Another area of concern is the death rate, which is starting to climb. There were 22 deaths today and 21 deaths yesterday. Those numbers are considerably higher than the 9.71 average daily death rate in the State. Since the recent spike in cases has been attributed to young patients who typically have better outcomes, it is disturbing that deaths have nevertheless increased two days in a row.
With the approach of the July 4 weekend holiday, there is no room for error. Stay at home - or be very careful and wear the damn mask! The 14-day totals:
6/18 - 894
6/19 - 796
6/20 - 547
6/21 - 472
6/22 - 433
6/23 - 643
6/24 - 967
6/25 - 1,142
6/26 - 977
6/27 - 900
6/28 - 1,046
6/29 - 1,047
6/30 - 870
7/1 - 917
Jefferson County had another bad day with 177 cases, followed by Tuscaloosa with 85 and Mobile with 63. Among the most populous counties, Montgomery has the highest positivity rate of 19%, followed by Mobile at 10%, Tuscaloosa at 9% and Jefferson at 6%.