January 9, 2021
It’s Saturday and I’m worried. ADPH reported 4,863 new cases today (incl. 1,229 probables), causing the 7-day average of new cases to reach a record 4,242 per day. What’s worse, the daily average of new cases for the last 5 days tops 5,000 and, if that rate were to continue for 2 more days, Alabama will rank among the top 5 in the nation in per capita cases for the week.
But, that’s not why I’m worried. It’s the climbing death rate that has me alarmed. There were 108 more COVID-related deaths reported in Alabama today, following 111 deaths yesterday, 86 on Thursday and 108 on Wednesday. That’s 413 deaths in just 4 days and, if that rate were to continue through Tuesday, Alabama would surpass Arizona for the highest weekly per capita death rate in the nation. Even before today, Alabama had reported 126% more deaths this week than it did last week, which gives Alabama the fastest growing death rate in the country.
I am shocked by the rapid rise in Alabama’s death rate, but I can’t say I’m surprised. I’ve often said that rising hospitalizations are the most accurate predictor of mounting deaths. And, Alabama is on a knife’s edge with respect to hospitalizations. We are effectively tied with Nevada for the 2nd highest per capita hospitalizations in the country (behind only Arizona). And hospitalizations continue to rise.
Today, we received news that there are now 2,995 patients in 101 reporting hospitals, which equates to 29.65 patients per hospital, a new record. Next week, when a full complement of 105-110 hospitals report their patient loads, there could be as many as 3,200 COVID patients statewide, twice the number of patients at the peak of the pandemic last July.
In the face of rising cases, hospitalizations and deaths, it is vital that the pace of vaccine distribution be accelerated. The NY Times vaccine tracker was updated last night and reported that Alabama has administered 57K doses out of 283K doses received by the State - 20.2% - and our percentage ranks ahead of only Georgia (19.7%). I don’t know what the answer is, but we simply have to vaccinate faster than that. We have reached crisis conditions in Alabama, so vaccinating lower-priority people more quickly seems preferable to letting vaccines sit around in cold storage.
I wish I could deliver more upbeat news - I really do. As a multi-generation native of Alabama, I love so much about this beautiful State. But, the facts don’t lie. Until vaccines are more widely distributed, we are confronting very dangerous trends. Friends, please be careful and stay safe. The totals:
12/27 - 2170
12/28 - 2269
12/29 - 3907
12/30 - 5106
12/31 - 4406
1/1 - 4521
1/2 - 3711
1/3 - 2476
1/4 - 2161
1/5 - 5498
1/6 - 4591
1/7 - 5046
1/8 - 5057
1/9 - 4863
The statewide daily average of new cases per capita is 87 per 100K. Over the last 7 days, the 5 counties with the highest number of new daily cases per capita are Crenshaw (154/ 100K); Hale (150/ 100K); Autauga (136/ 100K); Lowndes (126/ 100K); and Elmore (122/ 100K). The 5 populous counties with the highest per capita new daily cases are Jefferson (99/ 100K); Calhoun (99/ 100K); Montgomery (94/ 100K); Shelby (90/ 100K); and Madison (84/ 100K).