January 5, 2022
Since Christmas Day, Alabama has recorded almost 68,000 cases of Covid-19, culminating in today’s single day record 12,075 cases. The official 7-day average positivity rate is 41%, also a record. The CDC estimates that 3 of 4 cases do not get reported based on its analysis of cases through the end of September. Since Omicron is far more contagious than Delta and other strains, the CDC’s estimate may be conservative.
Alabama currently ranks just 21st among all states in per capita cases over the last 7 days (151 cases/100K population). It won’t be long before we eclipse other states. Infections in Alabama are rising at an alarming rate - in fact, daily cases have risen 764% over the last 14 days, which is the highest rate of increase in the nation.
Some experts, including Dr. Fauci, point to hospitalizations as a more predictive indicator of community impact. It is true that Omicron causes fewer severe outcomes than Delta, but that doesn’t mean there are fewer hospitalizations. On Christmas Day, Alabama hospitals were busy treating 581 patients. Tonight - the Twelfth Night of Christmas - that number is 2.5 times higher: 1,419 patients overall. Hospitalizations in Alabama have risen 62% in just the last week, trailing only Florida and Louisiana in that category.
Yes, Alabama and the rest of the Deep South clearly have a target on their backs. It seems inevitable that a tsunami will wreak havoc on our hospitals, just like those which preceded it. A year after vaccines first arrived, fewer than half our people (48%) are vaccinated… and only 28% of those have received the booster. Although breakthrough infections are more frequent with Omicron, Dr. Fauci has emphasized that a booster shot “unequivocally” reduces the severity of outcome in those who suffer a breakthrough infection. When you do the math, that means only 13.4% of 4.95 million Alabamians can “unequivocally” count on milder symptoms if they become infected.
On this night, we can pray that the Omicron surge will burn out quickly. We have the example of South Africa. I will note that the U.K.’s surge also appears to be slowing down. It has witnessed a 44% increase in reported cases during the last 7 days, which is less than half the rate of increase in the United States over the same time period. New York also seems to be moderating - there, reported cases have increased 58%, less than one-third the rate of increase in Alabama. These are hopeful signs that the surge may have crested in both the U.K. and New York, both of which were ground zero for Omicron a short time ago.
I’d like to believe that my state will follow these examples. What gives me pause is that Alabama is distinguishable by virtue of our abysmal rate of vaccination. In short, there is more dry tinder here in the Deep South, including Alabama. It stands to reason that our surge may last longer and do greater damage to our health care delivery system. The giant human experiment I wrote about on December 23 (https://frankmcphillips.substack.com/p/december-23-2021) is already upon us and I have no idea how it will turn out. The totals:
12/22 - 1,460
12/23 - 2,060
12/24 - 2,466
12/25 - 2,449
12/26 - 863
12/27 - 1,679
12/28 - 3,705
12/29 - 5,975
12/30 - 8,526
12/31 - 8,051
1/1 - 7,577
1/2 - 5,400
1/3 - 4,014
1/4 - 7,572
1/5 - 12,075