January 5, 2021
There is so much to cover today. Almost too much. It begins with the report of record 5,498 new cases (incl. 1,894 probables) in Alabama. It’s only the 3rd time the State has exceeded 5,000 cases in a single day (12/18 & 12/30 being the others), but this is likely to be the new normal for a while. It is particularly disturbing that these cases resulted from just 7,493 tests, which produces a whopping one-day positivity rate of 73.4%. The positivity rate has averaged between 45% and 47% during the last 7 days.
Current hospitalizations rose to 3,080 patients in 105 hospitals, compared with 3,064 in 106 hospitals yesterday. Decatur-Morgan hospital, an affiliate of the Huntsville Hospital Health system, reported 94 patients Monday, a decline from 97 patients last week. At a news conference, the hospital’s president, Kelli Powers, commented, “I’m happy to announce our numbers are down some. I’m not happy that it’s due to a lot of deaths.”
As daily cases and hospitalizations set records day after day, public attention increasingly turns to vaccine distribution. The ADPH vaccine dashboard was updated last night, showing 226,500 vaccine doses allocated to the State (Pfizer/Moderna combined) and 43,810 doses (18.9% of total) administered to date. That means 14% of eligible Phase 1a persons (i.e. medical personnel and nursing homes) have been inoculated, or just 0.87% of the State population, leaving 183,440 doses still on the shelf.
Alabama’s vaccine distribution plan was developed by the State Health Department, which controls the allocation of vaccine doses to local medical providers. However, decisions regarding when, and under what circumstances, a county may advance from Phase 1a to Phase 1b appear to be made at the county level, coordinated by county health departments. Accordingly, Calhoun County EMA announced today that it has met the criteria for advancing to Phase 1b, so seniors age 75 years old and older who live or work in that county may be vaccinated by EMA, first come first served, beginning today - no appointment necessary.
I am concerned that this decentralized distribution system will cause communication to suffer, leading to confusion, lack of accountability and perceptions of inequity. What is needed more than anything else is a clear, unified message and a sense of urgency from our State’s leaders. People are getting sick and dying at an alarming rate, which will only worsen with the emergence of a more transmissible mutant strain of virus.
When a 47 year-old businessman died of smallpox on March 1, 1947, New York City’s health commissioner, Israel Weinstein, went to work. In a series of daily radio addresses, Dr. Weinstein focused on transparency and consistent messaging: “Be Safe. Get Vaccinated.” The vaccine, he said, was free, and there was “absolutely no excuse for anyone to remain unprotected.” By the end, more than 6.4 million New Yorkers were vaccinated in less than a month, a major public health triumph.
We can do this. Our decentralized distribution system can work, but we need a Dr. Weinstein, a strong communicator with a bullhorn, who reminds us daily of what’s at stake. The totals:
12/23 - 4758
12/24 - 4232
12/25 - 3625
12/26 - 1032
12/27 - 2170
12/28 - 2269
12/29 - 3907
12/30 - 5106
12/31 - 4406
1/1 - 4521
1/2 - 3711
1/3 - 2476
1/4 - 2161
1/5 - 5498
Jefferson County reported a record 995 cases, while Montgomery followed with 446 cases; Shelby - 299; Madison - 277; Baldwin - 253; Elmore - 248; Mobile - 245; Calhoun - 223; and Autauga - 210. The Montgomery area is clearly at risk, as Montgomery County and its two surrounding counties, Elmore and Autauga counties, all shattered their prior individual records for new cases. Also, 62 of 67 counties had positivity rates over 30%; 55 counties over 40%; 23 counties over 50%; 8 over 60%; and Walker County stands at 74.7%.