January 4, 2020
Alabama’s COVID data present a study in contrasts. New daily cases were relatively low - 2,161 (incl. 475 probables); new reported tests were even lower - 3,316 (less than half the daily average); positivity rates were extremely high - 65.2% (single-day) and 43% (7-day moving average); and hospitalizations set a new record - 3,064 patients in 106 reporting hospitals, or 28.9 patients per hospital.
Today’s lower case count is ephemeral, unfortunately. Monday is the lightest reporting day of the week in our State, by far. In fact, over the last 3 months of 2020, there were 12% fewer cases on Mondays than on Tuesdays, and 45% fewer cases than on Fridays, with the other days falling in between. At the same time, there were fewer tests reported today than on any day in over 4 months. Don’t be surprised to see tests return to normal and more than 3,000 new cases each day for the rest of the week.
Today is also the first day that statewide hospitalizations have ever topped 3,000. The Huntsville Hospital System reported a record 507 COVID patients among its 8 affiliated hospitals, including a record 215 patients at its flagship Huntsville Hospital. DCH Regional Medical Center in Tuscaloosa had a record 179 COVID patients* and decided to restrict all patients, including non-COVID patients, to one visitor per day. *An earlier version of this letter indicated that DCH had 156 COVID patients. DCH updated its data late this afternoon and increased its patient load by 23 patients.
Alabama’s ICU capacities also were updated, but they remain much the same as last week: (i) State average 91% (vs national average 77%); (ii) UAB Hospital - 93% (13 beds available); (iii) St. Vincent’s - 92% (2 beds); Grandview - 86% (6 beds); Huntsville Hospital - 87% (14 beds); DCH - 91% (6 beds); all 3 Baptist hospitals in Montgomery - 100% (0 beds); Jackson Hospital, Montgomery - 96% (1 bed); Mobile Infirmary - 96% (3 beds); Thomas Hospital Fairhope - 105% (0 beds); East Alabama - 100% (0 beds); Anniston - 100%- (o beds); Cullman - 200% (0 beds); and Southeast Health in Dothan -112% (0 beds).
According to The Covid Tracking Project,15.4 million vaccine doses have now been delivered to the states and 4.6 million have been administered.
Our primary focus now must be the pace of vaccine distribution, which continues to defy any sense of urgency. As of 3:30 this afternoon, only 40K doses of the 159K doses distributed to the State have been administered, leaving 119K doses sitting in cold storage. To put that in perspective, less than 1% of all Alabamians have received the first dose of a 2-dose regimen so far - 3 weeks after receipt of the first shipment of Pfizer vaccine. At that rate, it will take more than 5 years to administer a single shot to 90% of our population. In fact, it will take more than 3 months to get through 90% of the State’s 300K medical personnel and nursing home residents.
There are still many unanswered questions about vaccine distribution that are being worked out by state and local officials. For now, I urge you to remain patient (not my strong suit) because I expect the pace to accelerate. Let’s hope our patience is rewarded. In the meantime, here are the 14-day totals:
12/22 - 4979
12/23 - 4758
12/24 - 4232
12/25 - 3625
12/26 - 1032
12/27 - 2170
12/28 - 2269
12/29 - 3907
12/30 - 5106
12/31 - 4406
1/1 - 4521
1/2 - 3711
1/3 - 2476
1/4 - 2161
Jefferson County appears to be improving - only 337 cases reported today, followed by Madison County (home of Huntsville) -199; Mobile -177; and Montgomery - 16. Nineteen counties in Alabama now have 14-day positivity rates over 50%, one more than yesterday.