January 31, 2022
As we close out this terrible month of January, things appear to be improving in Alabama. Do I dare sPeak the “P” word? Starting with the daily reported case count, we have averaged 8,468 cases/day since my last newsletter on January 27 - down 30% from 12,150 cases/day for the same 4 days the prior week. Extending the comparison to 7 days, the drop is nearly the same (31%). To repeat, reported case counts are a less reliable metric than in the past as at-home tests have become more accessible. Still, a 30% decline in one week is significant.
The decline in reported cases is pretty much across the board - 55 of Alabama’s 67 counties show double-digit declines in reported cases in the last 7 days. There appears to be a micro-outbreak in central Alabama, however, where there are week-to-week double-digit increases (or more) in Autauga Co. (up 138%); Montgomery Co.(up 38%); Lowndes Co. (up 20%); and Elmore Co. (up 13%).
Hospitalizations also show a slight improvement. Exactly one week ago, there were 3,212 patients in Alabama hospitals; today, that number has dropped to 3,055 (down 4.8%), according to the U.S. Dept of Health & Human Services. Alabama still has the 3rd highest per capita rate of hospitalizations in the nation - 62 per 100K population - behind only West Va. (71 per 100K) and the District of Columbia (69 per 100K).
Another sign that we may have peaked is the report from the Alabama Department of Education that 24,913 children were infected with Covid and withheld from school during the week ending last Thursday. That number is down slightly from 26,260 children the week before.
Unfortunately, Alabama’s daily death rate has nearly tripled in the last 7 days, rising from 13 to 37 deaths per day. Officially, 17,086 Alabamians have died of Covid since the start of the pandemic, more than every man, woman and child in Muscle Shoals, Gulf Shores or Selma. Even though the Omicron variant is not as deadly as prior strains of the virus, deaths can be expected to rise as we emerge from this latest surge.
If indeed the Omicron surge is waning in Alabama, we are following well-established trends in other states. Only 8 states have seen an increase in reported cases this week, compared to 41 states that have seen a decline (Georgia’s cases remained the same). Similarly, 8 states have seen a rise in hospitalizations, while 41 states have seen declines (North Carolina’s hospitalizations remained the same).
I will close with a cautionary note. There is another variant running rampant in Denmark which has made an appearance in the United States. It has sibling lineage with Omicron but does not yet have a name. For now, it is known only as “Ba.2”. It is more transmissible than Omicron (126% growth rate of Omicron), but does not appear to be any more severe. Preliminary evidence indicates that all vaccines actually work better against Ba.2 than against Omicron, and prior Omicron infection offers significant protection against Ba.2. For these reasons, this new variant is considered a “variant of concern” but is not a reason to panic, especially for those who are vaccinated or previously infected with Omicron. Sadly, Alabama is the only state where fewer than 50% of the people are vaccinated.
The SARS-CoV-2 virus, the source of all these variants, is a very clever pathogen. It constantly seeks ways to circumvent the obstacles we place in front of it, and unvaccinated people are the perfect petri dish for its experimentation. In a perfect world, there might be no need to worry about vaccine acceptance. Yet, as this virus knows all too well, this is far from a perfect world. The totals:
1/17 - 8,058
1/18 - 6,728
1/19 - 17,106
1/20 - 15,984
1/21 - 16,525
1/22 - 17,031
1/23 - 9,087
1/24 - 5,955
1/25 - 8,808
1/26 - 10,703
1/27 - 12,173
1/28 - 11,174
1/29 - 10,751
1/30 - 6,490
1/31 - 5,459