January 31, 2021 - The Coronavirus Feeds On Rigid Thinking
The Coronavirus Feeds On Rigid Thinking
January 31, 2021
The ADPH dashboard is back in operation, reporting 4,057 cases (incl. 1,093 probables) and 13,397 tests on Friday and Saturday, combined. Compared to the same 2 days last week (1/23 and 1/24), this represents a decline of roughly 1,000 cases. For the week, however, the total of new reported cases is only 0.6% below the total for the prior week, which contradicts the local media narrative that cases are trending down in Alabama. Nationally, it is true that new cases have declined by more than 14% from the prior week but, in Alabama, we are in a level holding pattern.
Hospitalizations are a different story. Alabama’s statewide hospitalizations stand at 1,884 patients in 101 reporting hospitals, or 18.7 patients per hospital compared with 18.8 patients per hospital on Friday. For the week, our hospitalizations have declined 16.6%, compared to the national decline of 13.9%.
There were 122 more deaths reported today in Alabama, culminating a 91% rise in the death rate compared to the prior week. In the U.S. as a whole, deaths rose by 2% over the prior week. At 21.1 additional reported deaths per 100K population, Alabama’s death rate over the last 7 days is 60% higher than the next highest state in the nation, Iowa (13.2 per 100K).
On Friday, the K-12 dashboard was updated, and 2,491 new cases were reported in the State’s public schools, 15% more than the prior week. Within Jefferson County, the Hoover and Mountain Brook school systems saw slight increases, while Homewood, Trussville, Vestavia Hills and Birmingham experienced declines. The weekly totals were as follows: (i) Hoover (50 cases, up from 45); (ii) Mtn Brook (31, up from 29); (iii) Homewood (15, down from 23) (iv) Trussville (12, down from 24); (v) Vestavia Hills (10, down from 17); and (vi) Birmingham (9, down from 15).
Based on updated data this afternoon, 6.1% of Alabama’s population has received a first shot of vaccine (48th in the nation) and 1.1% have received both shots (49th). Although ADPH blames Alabama’s slow rollout on lack of vaccine supply, I have often wondered why all states are not equally affected by that limitation. I believe I know the answer - the state’s very restrictive policy of earmarking 2nd doses is also partly to blame.
Here is my evidence - Alabama has administered 354K vaccine doses, or 46% of the doses it has in inventory. As of today, no other state in the nation has administered fewer than 50% of its doses on hand, according to the CDC. The national average is 61.2%. On the other end of the spectrum, North Dakota and West Virginia have already injected more than 80% of their doses in people’s arms. The Biden administration has urged states to push inventory out the door more quickly, relying on future production to supply most of the 2nd doses, but Alabama has been unwilling to do so. Why? Because it prefers to put a 2nd dose on a shelf in the freezer as an ironclad guarantee that it will be there exactly 4 weeks after the 1st dose, even if it means fewer people will get a first dose. The coronavirus feeds on such rigid thinking.
On Friday, Johnson & Johnson disclosed that its vaccine produced an efficacy rate of 72% in the U.S. and 56% in South Africa (annual flu vaccines are typically 40-60% effective) . Far less reported was the fact that the J&J vaccine was 85% effective in preventing severe disease, which translates to keeping people out of the hospital. And, among the 40,000 trial participants, the J&J vaccine was 100% effective in preventing death. According to Dr. Fauci, more important than preventing “aches and sore throats”, is fending off severe consequences that land people in the hospital, especially people with underlying conditions and older adults.
What’s more, Dr. Fauci said, in comparing the J&J vaccine to Pfizer and Moderna, it’s important to bear in mind that the J&J vaccine was tested not only against the standard strain but also against the variants, while the earlier Pfizer and Moderna vaccine trials were completed before the variants became apparent. Bottom line: if I were offered the J&J vaccine today, I would not hesitate for one second. The totals:
1/17 - 1917
1/18 - 1430
1/19 - 2515
1/20 - 3112
1/21 - 2881
1/22 - 3551
1/23 - 3355
1/24 - 1728
1/25 - 1839
1/26 - 2900
1/27 - 3177
1/28 - 3648
1/29 - 2848
1/31 - 4057